The Oklahoma City Thunder face the New York Knicks in an NBA game on Wednesday, March 4, 2026, at Madison Square Garden. OKC enters as the Western Conference top seed after winning last season's championship, while the Knicks aim for their fourth straight postseason appearance. The Thunder are 4-point favorites with an over/under of 221.5 points.
The matchup pits the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder against the New York Knicks at 7 p.m. ET. OKC holds the top spot in the Western Conference with a plus-11.3 points differential this season. The Knicks sit third in the Eastern Conference and boast a 23-8 home record in 2025-26. Jalen Williams is sidelined for the Thunder due to a hamstring injury.
Betting odds from DraftKings Sportsbook list the Thunder as 4-point favorites, with a money line of -172 for OKC and +144 for New York. The over/under total is set at 221.5 points.
The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates each NBA game 10,000 times, has a strong track record, returning over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on top-rated picks over eight-plus seasons. Entering Week 20, it was 41-18 on top-rated spread picks since last season.
After 10,000 simulations of this game, the model predicts the over on 221.5 points, projecting a combined total of 229 points. The over has hit in six of the last seven head-to-head games between the teams, four of OKC's last five games, and four of New York's last eight.
The Thunder are 6-4 against the spread in their last 10 games, while the Knicks are 4-6. The model forecasts Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to average 29.1 points, with five OKC players scoring 9.1 or more. For New York, Jalen Brunson is projected for 24.8 points, with five Knicks players at 10.7 or more.
The model also indicates one side of the spread hits over 50% of the time, though specific picks require accessing SportsLine.
