Interest Rates
Banco de la República hikes interest rate to 10.25% amid inflation surge and minimum wage controversy
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Colombia's Banco de la República raised its intervention rate by 100 basis points to 10.25%—the highest in over a year—in its first 2026 board meeting, citing persistent inflation above 5% for nearly six months and unanchored expectations from a 23.8% minimum wage hike decreed by President Petro's government. The decision, with a split 4-2-1 vote, drew market surprise and government criticism over economic contraction risks.
Egypt's Central Bank Monetary Policy Committee is expected to hold interest rates unchanged at its Thursday meeting, following cuts in December 2025 and February 2026. The decision comes amid rising core inflation and geopolitical risks. Experts describe the hold as the most prudent option to maintain stability.
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The South African Reserve Bank kept its repo rate unchanged at 6.75% on Thursday, citing the ongoing Iran war and rising oil prices. Governor Lesetja Kganyago said inflation remains on target but could accelerate if the conflict persists. The bank warned of potential rate hikes later this year.
The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 0.75% from 0.5% on December 20, marking a 30-year high aimed at curbing inflation. However, the yen weakened sharply against the dollar and other major currencies. Markets reacted with sales due to the BOJ's vague outlook on future hikes.
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The Board of Directors of the Banco de la República voted by majority to keep the policy interest rate at 9.25% in its final meeting of the year, amid ongoing inflationary pressures above 5%. Two members, including Finance Minister Germán Ávila, favored a 50 basis point cut. Inflation eased slightly to 5.3% in November, but future expectations rose.
The rupiah strengthened 0.16 percent to Rp16.665 per US dollar at Wednesday's market open, alongside weakening US economic data. Market participants await Bank Indonesia's Board of Governors meeting announcement, expected to hold the policy rate at 4.75 percent. Domestic inflation slowed to 2.72 percent year-on-year in November 2025.
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The Bank of Japan’s quarterly tankan survey showed large manufacturers’ business sentiment index rising to 15 in December from 14 in September, marking a four-year high since December 2021. This improvement reinforces market expectations for a rate hike by the central bank. Nonmanufacturers’ index held steady at 34.
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