Gemini secures CFTC derivatives license for prediction markets

Gemini, the cryptocurrency exchange founded by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, received U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission approval for a derivatives clearinghouse license. The approval enables the company to expand into regulated derivatives and prediction markets. Gemini shares rose about 7% following the announcement.

Gemini won CFTC approval for a derivatives clearinghouse (DCO) license, allowing it to clear and settle its own derivatives and prediction-market trades in-house. Combined with its existing designated contract market (DCM) authorization, the licenses position Gemini to offer a full-stack U.S. trading ecosystem covering sports, crypto, futures, options, and event-based contracts, the company said. Gemini also plans to expand into crypto futures, options, and perpetuals for U.S. users. This builds on its December 2025 debut of a prediction marketplace via affiliate Gemini Titan. “Today marks a major milestone in Gemini’s marketplace expansion,” Cameron Winklevoss said in a statement, describing it as part of a push toward a “super app” for financial services. The move aligns with surging interest in prediction markets, where trading volume rose over 300% in 2025 to $63.5 billion. Gemini is focusing solely on the U.S. after exiting the U.K., European Union, and Australia in February, which involved a 25% staff reduction. “The reality is that America has the world’s greatest capital markets and America has always been where it’s at for Gemini,” the founders said. Their thesis holds that prediction markets will be as big or bigger than today’s capital markets. Wall Street interest is growing, with Roundhill Investments expected to launch the first U.S. ETFs tied to prediction markets on May 5.

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Illustration of Minnesota capitol and federal clash over prediction markets
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Minnesota’s push to curb prediction markets runs into a federal preemption fight

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Minnesota lawmakers have advanced legislation aimed at restricting prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket, setting up a clash with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which argues federal law gives it exclusive authority over many of those products.

Venture capital firm a16z has filed an 18-page letter backing the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in its disputes with states over prediction markets. The firm argues that federal law preempts state regulations on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. It claims state crackdowns undermine the CFTC's mandate for impartial market access.

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U.S. President Donald Trump called it critically important for the CFTC to retain exclusive authority over prediction markets in a Truth Social post late Tuesday afternoon.

CME Group and ICE are pressing U.S. regulators to restrict Hyperliquid's offshore perpetual contracts tied to oil prices. The effort comes amid traditional exchanges' push into continuous trading, including CME's planned round-the-clock crypto futures launch.

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Coinbase announced further platform expansions in June 2026, introducing options trading, ACATS stock transfers, and pre-IPO perpetual futures, building on its prior moves toward an 'everything exchange'.

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