The New York Knicks will host the Miami Heat in a 2025 NBA Cup matchup on Friday at Madison Square Garden. Both Eastern Conference teams enter with strong records, but injuries to key players like Jalen Brunson, Bam Adebayo, and Tyler Herro could impact the game. Tipoff is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET.
The Knicks, currently 7-4 and tied for second in the Eastern Conference with the 76ers, have shown improvements on both ends of the floor this season. They rank among the top teams in efficiency gains, outscoring opponents by at least 1.0 points per 100 possessions adjusted for league average. New York ended a five-game winning streak with a loss to Orlando on Wednesday but remains competitive, particularly in the possession game, averaging 8.6 more shooting opportunities than opponents—the league's best differential.
Defensively, the Knicks lead the league with a 74.7% defensive rebounding percentage, up from 12th last season. Karl-Anthony Towns tops all players at 30% defensive rebounding rate and has increased drop coverage on ball screens to 57%. Offensively, they've boosted their 3-point attempt rate to 46.8%—fifth in the NBA—thanks to better ball movement, with 74% of threes now catch-and-shoot. Jalen Brunson has adapted well, averaging 5.12 miles per hour on offense and shooting 17-for-34 on catch-and-shoot threes.
The starting lineup of Brunson, Towns, Mikal Bridges, and OG Anunoby has excelled, posting a +15.9 net rating in 178 minutes together, a stark improvement from last season. However, Brunson is out with a sprained ankle for at least this game, potentially relying on Miles McBride, who has helped the offense score 120.8 points per 100 possessions without Brunson.
The Heat, at 7-5, seek to improve on their 37-45 record from last season but will miss Bam Adebayo (toe) and Tyler Herro (ankle). Betting odds list the Knicks as 5.5- to 6.5-point favorites with an over/under of 239.5 points. A projection model simulating the game 10,000 times favors the under at 238.5, projecting 235 total points, with no player exceeding 25 points.