A recent analysis explores how XRP's value might climb if every bank in Japan integrates the cryptocurrency for cross-border settlements. Currently trading near $2, XRP's market capitalization stands at about $120 billion. Widespread adoption by Japan's vast banking sector could potentially drive its price to around $16 per token.
Japan's banking industry is one of the largest globally, with domestically licensed banks holding approximately 1,447 trillion yen, or $9.65 trillion, in total assets as of November 2024. Total deposits across financial institutions reached about 1,047 trillion yen ($6.98 trillion) by February 2025, marking a 1.4% year-on-year increase. Projections for November 2025 suggest deposits between 1,060 and 1,070 trillion yen, with roughly 1.5% annual growth. Ordinary deposits totaled around 650 trillion yen, while time deposits were near 225 trillion yen in late February 2025. Loan-to-deposit ratios varied: 40% to 50% for major banks, 50% to 60% for regional ones, and 60% to 70% for shinkin banks as of August 2025. Securities holdings amounted to 300 to 350 trillion yen, comprising about 40% of total assets by the end of August 2025. The sector includes around 100 city and regional banks, 250 shinkin banks, and 13,500 domestic branches as of September 2024, controlling nearly 10% of global banking assets.
To gauge XRP's potential, an assessment using Google Gemini modeled a scenario where XRP's market cap reaches 10% of Japan's $9.65 trillion in bank assets, equaling $965 billion. With the current circulating supply, this would yield a price of about $16.08 per XRP, an 800% rise from $2. However, the model notes this is an extreme assumption, as XRP would mainly facilitate liquidity and transactions, not directly represent bank assets.
XRP has longstanding ties in Japan. In 2016, Ripple partnered with SBI Holdings to create SBI Ripple Asia, promoting payment solutions. That year, SBI invested in Ripple's $55 million Series B round, and Mizuho Financial Group joined Ripple's network. By 2017, SBI Ripple Asia formed the Japan Bank Consortium with 61 banks covering over 80% of national banking assets, running pilots on Ripple's RC Cloud for real-time settlements. In 2018, SBI launched VCTRADE, Japan's first bank-backed cryptocurrency exchange emphasizing XRP. In 2021, SBI Remit introduced the country's inaugural XRP-based international remittance service via Ripple's On-Demand Liquidity, targeting routes like Japan to the Philippines for faster, cheaper transfers.
