NOAA
NOAA raises El Niño probability to 90% for September 2026
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The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) updated its forecasts, estimating a 90% probability of El Niño starting in September 2026 and lasting through the year's final quarter. It raised the May-July projection from 25% in March to 61%. Experts warn of impacts in regions like the Caribbean, Andes, and Orinoquía, including forest fire risks from water deficits and thermal stress.
A collaborative initiative funded by $4.6 million from the NOAA Coastal Zone Management Program is underway to enhance coral restoration in American Samoa. The project unites local agencies, village leaders, and academic partners to build capacity and train future natural resource managers. It leverages decades of research on heat-tolerant corals amid rising marine heatwaves.