CFTC warns prediction markets against vague self-certification

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued an advisory on Friday reminding prediction market firms not to submit broad template-style certifications for event contracts.

The US regulator said designated contract markets must supply specific terms and conditions for each proposed contract along with explanations of compliance. It noted that many firms have continued to self-certify large groups of event contracts without the required details on settlement methodology and data sources.

The agency stated that "broad, template-style certifications should not be submitted," marking the second such warning in recent months. It added that closely related contracts may still be certified together as a class with shared exhibits.

The CFTC oversees platforms including Kalshi, Coinbase, Polymarket and Crypto.com. The advisory aims to ensure firms provide enough information for the regulator to evaluate each product individually.

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Illustration of CFTC officials discussing prediction market regulations in a conference room.
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CFTC proposes first rules for prediction markets

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The Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued its initial proposed rulemaking on prediction markets Wednesday. The rules aim to clarify which event contracts qualify as being in the public interest under federal law.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission opened a public comment period on June 18 to define swaps, mixed swaps, and event contracts. The process will shape oversight of crypto perpetual futures and prediction markets.

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The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has issued a no-action letter providing regulatory relief to prediction market operators. The measure eases compliance with swap data reporting rules for fully collateralized event contracts.

Polymarket's U.S. affiliate has filed to offer margin trading to American users, a move that would allow larger positions with reduced capital if approved by regulators.

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Wall Street broker Bernstein said prediction market platforms are poised for a wave of mergers and acquisitions as companies integrate customer distribution with exchange infrastructure.

Kalshi has introduced new rules requiring some users to disclose their employers before trading in high-risk markets. The measures aim to prevent insider trading and market manipulation on the prediction platform.

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Kalshi has secured formal approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to offer perpetual futures on several altcoins in the United States. The move positions the platform to expand into an emerging market for crypto derivatives. Hyperliquid also saw significant trading activity following the regulatory development.

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