Iran-US war to pressure Q4 profits of Nifty 50 firms: analysts

Net profit growth for Nifty 50 companies in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 is expected to slow on a year-on-year basis due to price effects from the Iran-US war, brokerages said. Estimates range from 0.6% to 6%.

Net profit for Nifty 50 companies, representative of Indian corporates, is projected to grow between 0.6% and 6% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, brokerages reported. The slowdown stems from price effects of the Iran-US war.

Motilal Oswal Financial Services estimated a 6% year-on-year increase. Kotak Institutional Equities offered a more conservative forecast of 2.6% growth.

These projections account for India's crude oil import reliance amid the West Asia conflict. Analysts note the war's impact on corporate earnings, with official figures pending.

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BSE trading floor during Sensex and Nifty rally on US-Iran ceasefire relief, with cheering traders amid rising indices and cautious expressions over fragile peace.
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Indian markets rally on US-Iran ceasefire relief but caution persists

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Indian equity benchmarks Sensex and Nifty posted their strongest single-day gains in years on Wednesday, driven by a US-Iran ceasefire that eased oil prices and inflation fears. The market capitalization of BSE-listed companies rose by ₹16.1 lakh crore. However, Asian stocks turned cautious as the ceasefire showed signs of fragility.

India's Sensex and Nifty continued to decline on March 5 amid persistent uncertainties from the Iran conflict, surging crude prices, and fears of escalation, compounding the sharp initial drop earlier in the week. Retail investors saw mutual fund and stock portfolios turn negative, prompting advice on navigating wartime volatility.

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Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty closed nearly 6% higher for the week, snapping a six-week losing streak after a ceasefire between the US and Iran. Both indices rose 1.2% on Friday. Investors adopted a risk-on approach amid reduced volatility.

Global markets tumbled as US-Iran tensions and prolonged Israeli conflict drove oil prices higher. Asian shares and futures dipped, with investors preparing for extended fighting. The inflationary pressures have reduced expectations for central bank rate cuts.

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Indian equity benchmarks Nifty 50 and Sensex crashed more than 3% on Thursday, their steepest single-day decline since June 2024, closing at 23,002.15 and 74,207.24 respectively. Escalating West Asia conflicts drove crude above $110 a barrel, stoking inflation fears, while HDFC Bank shares tumbled over 5% following chairman Atanu Chakraborty's resignation.

Indian stock markets closed higher on Friday, boosted by IT, auto, and metal sectors, though banking stocks capped the gains. Analysts, including Sudeep Shah, express caution due to the West Asian conflict, high oil prices, and ongoing FII outflows. Nifty and Bank Nifty face resistance levels, with pullbacks being sold.

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India's Nifty index closed lower following sustained selling pressure, remaining above long-term averages while exhibiting short-term weakness. Technical indicators point to market consolidation with a corrective bias ahead of a cautious week. Expert Daljeet Kohli highlights potential selective rebounds driven by Q4 earnings in certain sectors.

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