Model favors under in Kentucky vs. Louisville matchup

The ninth-ranked Kentucky Wildcats face the No. 12 Louisville Cardinals in the 2025 Battle of the Bluegrass on Tuesday night. SportsLine's projection model, which simulates games 10,000 times, predicts the under on the 173.5-point total. Louisville enters as a 6.5-point favorite at home.

Heavyweights clash when the ninth-ranked Kentucky Wildcats (2-0) take on the No. 12 Louisville Cardinals (2-0) in the 2025 Battle of the Bluegrass at KFC Yum! Center in Louisville, Ky. Tipoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on Nov. 11.

Kentucky is coming off a 107-59 win over Valparaiso on Friday. The Wildcats tied for sixth in the SEC last season with a 10-8 record and finished 24-12 overall. They are 4-6 on the road since the start of last season.

Louisville downed Jackson State 106-70 on Thursday. The Cardinals tied for second in the ACC at 18-2 and went 27-8 overall in 2024-25. They boast a 16-3 home record since last November.

The latest odds list Louisville as a 6.5-point favorite, with an over/under of 173.5 points. The money line stands at Louisville -256 and Kentucky +208.

SportsLine's Projection Model, which has returned over $2,200 in profit for $100 players on top-rated college basketball picks over the past three seasons, simulates the game 10,000 times. It projects the under on the total, with the teams combining for 162 points in nearly 80% of simulations.

The model forecasts three Kentucky players scoring in double figures, led by Otega Oweh with an average of 13.1 points. For Louisville, five players reach double digits, topped by Adrian Wooley's 17 points. One side of the spread hits in more than 50% of simulations.

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