Moody’s lifts South Africa outlook to positive

Moody’s Ratings has changed South Africa’s credit outlook to positive from stable while keeping its Ba2 rating unchanged. The move reflects progress on fiscal management and reforms.

Moody’s Ratings kept South Africa’s credit rating at Ba2 but shifted the outlook to positive. The agency cited stronger fiscal performance and progress on structural reforms in energy, logistics and water.

Standard Bank senior economist Dr Elna Moolman said the change signals possible future upgrades. She noted that the debt-to-GDP ratio has peaked and should now decline gradually.

Moody’s expects reforms to lift growth to 2 per cent by 2028. It acknowledged risks from the Iran war but said policy responses would help manage short-term pressures.

Makwe Fund Managers chief investment officer Makwe Masilela said exporters should seek diversified markets to support growth and job creation.

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Illustration depicting Fitch's negative outlook on Indonesia's BBB-rated debt, with Moody's reference, amid symbols of economic strength and fiscal pressures.
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Fitch follows Moody's with negative outlook on Indonesia's debt

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Rating agency Fitch Ratings has revised Indonesia's sovereign debt outlook from stable to negative—following Moody's similar move last month—while maintaining the BBB investment-grade rating. Officials including Coordinating Minister Airlangga Hartarto and Bank Indonesia emphasized ongoing economic strength amid fiscal pressures from programs like Free Nutritious Meals (MBG) and global tensions.

Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana is set to deliver South Africa's 2026 Budget speech on February 25, amid positive economic signals including a credit rating upgrade and rising commodity prices. These factors are expected to support efforts to cap the country's debt at 77.9% of GDP and advance fiscal consolidation. Economists anticipate a focus on stabilizing debt and outlining a path to lower ratios in the medium and long term.

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Building on the roller-coaster business year of 2025—which saw Eskom gains, budget battles, and eventual credit upgrades—South Africa begins 2026 with enhanced macroeconomic stability, including reliable power supply and a credit rating upgrade, fostering a more predictable business environment. However, persistent issues like high unemployment, crime, and slow coalition politics limit broader recovery. This balance creates a narrow window for progress rather than a complete turnaround.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) kept its 2026 growth forecast for South Korea unchanged at 1.9 percent despite the Middle East crisis. The institution raised its inflation outlook for this year by 0.7 percentage point to 2.5 percent, citing rising global oil prices. The Ministry of Economy and Finance said strong exports and effects from a supplementary budget kept the growth outlook steady.

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Argentine financial markets reacted strongly on Wednesday after Fitch Ratings upgraded the country's sovereign debt. The agency raised the rating from CCC+ to B- with a stable outlook.

Argentina's credit rating rose to B- after Fitch Ratings' decision, driving the country risk down to 496 basis points on Monday, May 11. The indicator had not broken that level since late January.

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The Asian Development Bank has raised its 2026 growth forecast for South Korea to 1.9 percent, driven by rising exports and improved private consumption. This represents a 0.2 percentage point increase from its December prediction. The outlook matches 1.9 percent projections from the IMF and Korea Development Institute, while the Bank of Korea expects 2 percent.

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