The rupiah strengthened by 10 points to Rp16.706 per US dollar at the opening of trading on Monday morning in Jakarta. This gain was driven by easing concerns over the AI speculative bubble in the US stock market. Additionally, Bank Indonesia's announcement of a current account surplus supported the positive movement.
On Monday, November 24, 2025, the rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar strengthened by 10 points or 0.06 percent to Rp16.706 from the previous Rp16.716 at the opening of trading in Jakarta. Currency analyst from Doo Financial Futures, Lukman Leong, stated that the rupiah has potential to strengthen further as market sentiment improves due to easing concerns over the artificial intelligence (AI) bubble in the US.
“The rupiah is expected to potentially strengthen against the US dollar due to improving market sentiment from AI bubble concerns,” Lukman said in Jakarta. He explained that investor enthusiasm for AI has caused valuation surges in companies, including loss-making startups with fantastic values. Stock price increases also extended to non-technology sectors, indicating excessive market confidence. Currently, the US stock market has experienced corrections, though investors remain uncertain whether the decline will continue or reverse upward.
Lukman warned, “If the bubble bursts, it will cause a major risk-off sentiment with impacts spreading worldwide, making investors avoid risky assets and currencies.” However, the current sentiment leans toward risk-on, with US stocks closing positive and Asian markets generally rising.
On the other hand, negative sentiment arises from reduced prospects for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, with the likelihood of a December reduction around 60 percent. Based on these factors, the rupiah rate is projected to move in the range of Rp16.660–Rp16.750 per US dollar.
The rupiah's strengthening was also supported by Bank Indonesia's announcement that Indonesia's current account recorded a surplus of US$4.0 billion or 1.1 percent of GDP in Q3 2025, the first surplus in the last 10 quarters. This surplus was driven by improved non-oil trade balance and increased foreign tourist visits, although the oil trade deficit rose due to global oil prices. By 09:13 WIB, the rupiah was at Rp16.707 per US dollar, up 9 points. Nevertheless, the day's closing prediction indicated fluctuations with potential weakening in the range of Rp16.710–Rp16.740.
