The Oklahoma City Thunder, riding a strong season with a 36-8 record, face the Milwaukee Bucks on Wednesday night at Fiserv Forum. Oklahoma City enters as a 9.5-point favorite amid recent dominance over Milwaukee, while the Bucks aim to snap a slide at home. The matchup tips off at 9:30 p.m. ET, with betting models projecting a high-scoring affair.
The Thunder have been one of the NBA's top teams this season, leading the Northwest Division and posting a 16-5 road record. They recently dismantled the Cleveland Cavaliers 136-104 on Monday, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scoring 30 points on 12-of-20 shooting and Chet Holmgren adding 28 points. Oklahoma City has won 10 of its last 13 games overall and three straight against the Bucks, reversing a previous stretch where Milwaukee took six in a row.
The Bucks, sitting at 18-24 and fourth in the Central Division, have struggled at home with a 9-10 mark, losing four of their last six there. They edged the Atlanta Hawks 112-110 on Monday, led by Giannis Antetokounmpo's 21 points, with five teammates also reaching double figures. Milwaukee's offense ranks 25th league-wide at 112.4 points per game, facing the NBA's stingiest defense in Oklahoma City, which allows just 108 points.
Injuries plague the Thunder: Alex Caruso is out with a groin issue, Jalen Williams sidelined by a hamstring/back problem, Isaiah Hartenstein out with a calf injury, and Jaylin Williams questionable due to a glute strain. This could increase the load on Gilgeous-Alexander, who averages 31.8 points and is projected by models to score 35.5 in this game.
The consensus spread lists Oklahoma City as a 9.5-point favorite, with an over/under of 227.5 points. SportsLine's Projection Model, which has simulated the game 10,000 times, favors the Over hitting in 65% of simulations, citing Oklahoma City's league-leading 121.4 points per game and recent trends where five of their last seven contests exceeded 233 combined points. Milwaukee's Antetokounmpo is projected for 27.3 points, with six Bucks scorers expected to hit at least 11.7.
This interconference tilt highlights contrasting forms: the Thunder's championship aspirations against the Bucks' push to climb the standings.
