Will tailwinds turn to headwinds for Takaichi in 2026?

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has enjoyed tailwinds since taking office on October 21, with high approval ratings and an ambitious policy agenda. In 2026, however, she must demonstrate to voters that she can meet their expectations through steady leadership and concrete solutions to national challenges. Like Charles Dickens' 'Great Expectations,' these high hopes could become her biggest test.

Sanae Takaichi's first two months as prime minister could be titled 'Great Expectations,' echoing Charles Dickens' novel. Since assuming office on October 21, 2025, she has benefited from regained majority in the Lower House, strong approval ratings, and a bold policy agenda. Her administration, centered on the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), draws support from Nippon Ishin no Kai, Komeito, and figures like Taro Aso.

Yet 2026 presents potential headwinds. The prime minister must prove to the electorate her ability to deliver steady leadership and practical responses to Japan's challenges. Key elements include the LDP, Nippon Ishin no Kai, Komeito, Taro Aso, and the Diet, underscoring the political landscape as of the article's publication on January 1, 2026.

The regime's trajectory hinges on tangible outcomes. These lofty expectations may transform into pressures, testing the implementation of her vision.

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Snowy Tokyo election rally with PM Sanae Takaichi, capturing unpredictability factors like youth disinterest, party splits, and polls for Japan's February 8 vote.
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Japan's February 8 lower house election unpredictable for five reasons

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Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has called a snap lower house election for February 8, marking one of the most unpredictable contests in years. Factors include a gap between her high approval ratings and her party's lower support, low youth turnout, the coalition split, a far-right challenge, and the winter timing. Surveys suggest the Liberal Democratic Party could gain seats in proportional representation.

When Sanae Takaichi was elected Liberal Democratic Party president and prime minister, expectations were high that she would reclaim conservative votes lost under her more liberal predecessor. However, as the upcoming Lower House election approaches, it is increasingly uncertain whether those votes will return to the LDP. Despite Takaichi's high personal approval ratings, they have not boosted the party's support as hoped, with aggressive campaigns by smaller conservative parties potentially splitting the vote.

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Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is scheduled to hold a press conference on January 19, 2026, at 6:00 p.m., where she is likely to announce her intention to dissolve the House of Representatives. The dissolution is expected at the start of the regular Diet session on January 23, prompting ruling and opposition parties to intensify preparations for a general election.

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi expressed determination to swiftly compile an economic package focused on combating rising prices during a question-and-answer session in the House of Representatives on November 5, calling for opposition cooperation. Opposition parties pressed for consumption tax cuts and delays in social security reforms, while the government offered responses lacking concrete measures. The ruling coalition lacks a majority in both houses, making broad cross-party support essential.

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Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi pledged on November 4 to boost investments in 17 strategic fields, including artificial intelligence and shipbuilding, to revitalize the economy. Her administration aims to finalize a growth plan by next summer. The strategy seeks to increase tax revenues without raising taxes through public spending.

On January 23, 2026, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi dissolved Japan's House of Representatives, paving the way for a snap election on February 8. The move, the shortest campaign period in postwar history at 16 days, seeks public endorsement for her ruling coalition. Opposition parties have united to challenge on issues like economic policies and defense enhancements.

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Japan's Nikkei share average rallied ahead of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's snap lower house election on February 8, driven by a weaker yen and positive polls for her Liberal Democratic Party. Voters are prioritizing inflation countermeasures, while an AI-doctored campaign video has raised concerns over electoral fairness.

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