Zhang Youxia's fall raises questions on Beijing's Taiwan plans

Investigations into China's top military commanders have raised questions about the People's Liberation Army's battle readiness, especially for large-scale operations targeting Taiwan. However, most analysts interviewed agree that any disruption would be short-lived.

Recent investigations into China's top military commanders, particularly involving Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia, have sparked widespread questions about the battle readiness of the world's largest armed force, the People's Liberation Army. This development highlights Beijing's ongoing anti-corruption drive within the military, with key terms including corruption, the Central Military Commission, and the Taiwan Strait.

Reports indicate that two top Chinese military generals have been removed from their posts and are under investigation for 'serious violations.' This includes Zhang Youxia, and possibly figures like Liu Zhenli or Lin Xiangyang, though specific details remain undisclosed. The probe was reported on February 4, 2026, amid Chinese President Xi Jinping's anti-graft campaign.

Experts note that while cross-strait ties have deteriorated under Taiwan's pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party, Beijing assesses the risk of the island making a decisive move toward formal independence as contained. Analysts interviewed by the South China Morning Post stated that the shake-up reflects Beijing's strategic calculations, with any disruption to military capabilities expected to be short-lived.

Meanwhile, under President Donald Trump, the United States appears keen to preserve the Taiwan Strait status quo while prioritizing consolidation of its position in the western hemisphere. This dynamic further reduces the urgency for immediate action from Beijing.

Overall, while the incident exposes internal military issues, analysts agree it will have limited long-term impact on Beijing's potential Taiwan plans.

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Illustrative news image of PLA naval and air drills encircling Taiwan amid heightened military tensions and Taiwan's defensive alert.
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Justice Mission 2025: PLA drills commence around Taiwan amid Taiwan alert

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Following the December 29 announcement of 'Justice Mission 2025,' the PLA Eastern Theater Command has launched joint drills around Taiwan, testing multi-service combat capabilities in sea-air patrols, blockades, and deterrence. Taiwan has deployed forces, missile systems, and remains on high alert, criticizing the exercises as a challenge to norms.

China's defense ministry has announced an investigation into senior military officials Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli for suspected serious disciplinary and legal violations. The two hold key positions as vice chairman and chief of staff of the Central Military Commission, highlighting Xi Jinping's emphasis on party purity.

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China’s People’s Liberation Army has pledged to strengthen oversight of military training following corruption probes into top generals Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli. An article in the official PLA Daily outlined annual anti-corruption priorities, vowing to crack down on “fakery that undermines combat capability.” The focus is on misconduct in training and exercises, including “falsification.”

A video released by the PLA's Eastern Theatre Command during the “Justice Mission 2025” joint military exercises shows a J-20 fighter flying near a landscape resembling Taiwan's Pingtung airbase in the south, sparking debate. Some observers say the background matches the Pingtung area, but analysts are sceptical. Former Taiwanese navy lieutenant commander Lu Li-shih shared a comparison image on social media, exclaiming “J-20 fighter jets in Pingtung!”

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Continuing its 'Justice Mission 2025' exercises launched on December 29, the People's Liberation Army Eastern Theater Command held the second day of drills on December 30, featuring live-fire operations simulating maritime attacks and anti-air and anti-submarine missions north and south of Taiwan. The manoeuvres serve as a warning to 'independence forces' and external interference. Taiwan's defence ministry detected a record 130 PLA aircraft, 14 ships, and eight coastguard vessels near the island in the prior 24 hours.

Following China's December 29 announcement, the PLA launched 'Justice Mission 2025' exercises around Taiwan on December 30, prompting Japan to dispatch a Maritime Self-Defense Force destroyer for surveillance amid heightened tensions over U.S. arms sales and Tokyo's warnings on a potential Taiwan crisis.

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Following the US military's capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on January 4, 2026, Latin American governments are rethinking their reliance on China and Russia for protection against Washington. Beijing has reaffirmed its commitment to Venezuela amid ongoing energy ties, while US President Trump pledged forces will oversee a political transition to keep oil flowing globally, including to China.

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