A Datafolha poll conducted on July 22 and 23, 2026, indicates that President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a national second-round scenario.
The survey interviewed 2,004 voters in 139 municipalities, with a margin of error of two percentage points. In the second round, Lula obtains 54% among Catholics against 37% for Flávio Bolsonaro, while the senator leads among evangelicals with 60% to 31%.
Lula shows an advantage among women, lower-income voters, those with basic education and residents of the Northeast, where he registers 62% against 29%. Flávio Bolsonaro performs better among men, higher-income voters, those with higher education and in the South region, with 52% to 36%.
In the Southeast, the two candidates appear technically tied, with Flávio Bolsonaro at 46% and Lula at 44%. The institute registered the poll with the Superior Electoral Court under number BR-01166/2026.
