Tuesday’s off-year contests in Virginia, New Jersey, New York City and California arrive as an early test of President Donald Trump’s standing and the GOP’s fortunes heading into 2026. Governors’ races in Virginia and New Jersey, New York City’s mayoral election, and California’s Proposition 50 could offer clues about Latino voting shifts, campaign strategies in blue states, and how a weeks-long federal shutdown is shaping public mood.
The national backdrop
Trump’s approval rating has held near the low 40s this fall — 41% in Gallup’s Oct. 1–16 soundings — roughly in line with his pre-2018 midterm standing, when Republicans lost about 40 U.S. House seats. That parallel is one reason both parties are treating Tuesday’s outcomes as a barometer for 2026. (news.gallup.com)
Democrats in key races have worked to tie GOP opponents to Trump and to his policies, while Republicans in blue-leaning states have tried a careful balance: accepting the president’s endorsement but emphasizing local issues. In New Jersey, for example, Rep. Mikie Sherrill has attacked Jack Ciattarelli over his alignment with Trump, even as Ciattarelli touts cooperation with the White House but hedges on joint appearances. (reuters.com)
Virginia: a familiar pattern, new names
Since 1977, Virginia has elected a governor from the party opposite the sitting president in 11 of the last 12 elections; the lone exception was Democrat Terry McAuliffe’s 2013 win during Barack Obama’s presidency. This year features Democrat Abigail Spanberger, a former CIA officer and U.S. representative, against Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears — the first time both major-party nominees are women. (apnews.com)
Spanberger’s closing message centers on “tradition” and “service,” highlighting her law-enforcement and CIA background in a recent ad, while both parties view the race as an early read on Trump-era politics in a state that has trended blue in federal contests. (abigailspanberger.com)
New Jersey: a tight race and a test of Trump’s pull
In New Jersey, Sherrill — a former Navy helicopter pilot and federal prosecutor — faces Ciattarelli, a former state assemblyman making his third bid for governor. Polling averages show a close race with Sherrill holding a small, consistent lead. The contest is a test of whether Republicans can advance in a state Trump lost by about six points in 2024. (reuters.com)
Latino trends will be closely watched. Analyses after the 2024 election found Trump made unusual gains with Hispanic voters nationally. In New Jersey, Passaic County — 45% Latino by Census estimates — flipped Republican for president in 2024 for the first time since 1992, with Trump carrying the county by roughly three points. Other heavily Latino counties to watch include Hudson (about 41%), Cumberland (about 36%), and Union (about 35%). (washingtonpost.com)
California’s Prop. 50: redistricting on the ballot
- California voters will decide Proposition 50, a legislative constitutional amendment that would temporarily replace the state’s independent commission’s congressional maps with legislatively drawn lines through 2030, with the commission resuming its role in 2031. Backers, including Gov. Gavin Newsom, frame it as a temporary response to aggressive GOP gerrymanders elsewhere; opponents call it a partisan “power grab.” (voterguide.sos.ca.gov)
New York City: affordability vs. caution
- In New York City’s mayoral race, Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani, a democratic socialist state assembly member, has centered his campaign on affordability — proposing a rent freeze for stabilized apartments, fare-free buses, and universal child care, among other measures. He has also publicly distanced himself from earlier “defund the police” statements, saying he would not cut NYPD staffing while pressing for changes such as reducing overtime and shifting some responses to civilian teams. (nbcnewyork.com)
The shutdown shadow
The elections arrive amid a federal shutdown that began Oct. 1 and has stretched into its fifth week — among the longest since such shutdowns began in the modern era. The CBO has warned of mounting economic costs if it continues. Negotiations have stalled over whether to extend Affordable Care Act premium tax credits within a funding deal. Recent polling shows more Americans blame Trump and congressional Republicans than Democrats, though sizable shares fault both sides. (en.wikipedia.org)
Immigration enforcement has also loomed over 2025 politics. The administration’s nationwide crackdown has included large-scale workplace operations, with New Jersey raids detaining dozens of workers — a reminder that recent sweeps have reached beyond those with serious criminal records. How Latino voters respond in off-year turnout — particularly in places like Passaic and Hudson — is a key unknown heading into Tuesday. (pbs.org)
