Bismarck Rewane, managing director of Financial Derivatives Company, predicts Nigeria's stock market capitalisation could surge by 190 percent to N262 trillion in 2026. He shared this outlook at the 2025 Parthian Economic Discourse in Lagos, highlighting potential big-ticket listings as key drivers. However, he cautioned that success hinges on macroeconomic stability and security improvements.
At the 2025 Parthian Economic Discourse held in Lagos last week, Bismarck Rewane, managing director of Financial Derivatives Company, forecasted significant growth for Nigeria's stock market. He projected the capitalisation, currently at N91 trillion, could reach N262 trillion in 2026, rising further to N393 trillion in 2027 and N590 trillion by 2028. This expansion, representing a 190 percent increase next year, would be propelled by long-awaited major listings, enhanced corporate earnings, and greater market efficiency.
Rewane pointed to upcoming entrants like the Dangote Refinery, valued at about $32 billion, and a potential listing by NNPC Limited as transformative forces. These developments could elevate the market's share of GDP from around 20 percent to nearly 80 percent in the medium term, positioning it as a primary engine for capital formation. "The stock market is becoming a bigger source of national savings and corporate financing. These listings will alter the structure of the market and significantly influence growth," Rewane stated.
He emphasized that such growth depends on achieving macroeconomic stability, curbing inflation, and fostering an investment-friendly interest-rate environment. Rewane also addressed broader economic challenges, noting Nigeria's revised GDP of $250 billion makes the government's $1 trillion economy goal by 2030 unrealistic without boosts in productivity, investment, and security. He highlighted diaspora remittances as a stabilizing factor but warned of potential declines due to global AI disruptions in labour markets.
Oluseye Olusoga, group managing director of Parthian Pension, echoed concerns about competitiveness within the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). He warned that nations like Togo and Benin are capitalizing on AfCFTA for industrial growth, potentially capturing value from Nigeria's consumer base if local efforts lag. "If we don’t fill the regional vacuum, others will. Investment follows security and security is now our biggest economic variable," Olusoga added.
Rewane further noted that recent increases in external reserves stem mainly from Eurobond inflows, urging a balanced view amid rising debt obligations.