Norwegian Nobel Committee probes suspected peace prize leak
People have made large profits betting that Venezuelan opposition politician María Corina Machado would win the Nobel Peace Prize. The Norwegian Nobel Committee is now investigating suspicions of a leak following a sudden surge in odds on the prediction market Polymarket. The committee is examining whether the name leaked in advance.
On October 10, 2025, it was announced that María Corina Machado, a Venezuelan opposition politician, had been awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. On Thursday, she was not mentioned in any pre-tips, but overnight into Friday, a dramatic change occurred on the Polymarket platform. The probability of her winning surged from 3.74 percent to 72.9 percent, leading several people to make large profits. A newly created account on Polymarket reportedly earned around half a million Swedish kronor.
Nordea's Norwegian investment chief Robert Næss comments on the incident to Dagens Næringsliv: "This smells fishy. It's almost one hundred percent certain that someone leaked it."
Nobel Committee Secretary Kristian Berg Harpviken tells Aftenposten that "it's too early to be sure it's a leak," but adds: "But this is something we will now investigate." According to him, only "a small handful" of people knew about the winner in advance.
However, Committee Chair Jørgen Watne Frydnes dismisses speculations of an insider job in an interview with NTB: "I don't believe there has ever been any leaks in the prize's history, so I can't imagine that."
The investigation focuses on how the information might have leaked, despite strict secrecy protocols in the Nobel process. The incident raises questions about the integrity of the selection, though no confirmed leak has been identified yet.