A new report from Bitget Wallet and Polymarket shows prediction markets shifting from occasional bets to platforms with daily retail engagement. Trading volumes on Polymarket have surged to over $20 billion monthly in early 2026. The industry is projected to reach $240 billion this year.
Prediction markets are transforming from event-driven gambling into continuous platforms where retail users make frequent, smaller trades on topics from crypto to politics and sports. According to a joint report from Bitget Wallet and Polymarket, this shift marks prediction markets as a growing part of how people track real-world expectations in economics, politics, and culture alongside traditional data sources. Polymarket's monthly trading volume climbed from about $1.2 billion in 2025 to more than $20 billion in early 2026, with active wallets tripling in six months. The platform recorded $25.7 billion in volume in March alone, based on activity from 1.29 million wallets in the first quarter of 2026. Over 82% of users traded less than $10,000 during that period, highlighting retail dominance through repeated small actions rather than large bets. “Prediction markets are becoming less about capital and more about consistent, repeated actions,” said Alvin Kan, Bitget Wallet's chief operating officer. “What we're seeing is a behavioral shift: The market is scaling with more taps per day, not bigger trades.” Crypto accounts for nearly 40% of new user activity but engagement broadens to real-world events as users return regularly. “As prediction markets evolve into core financial infrastructure, distribution becomes as important as the underlying market itself,” said Elden Mirzoian, director of growth and partnerships at Polymarket. “We're seeing a shift from episodic trading to more continuous engagement.” The report projects industry volume could hit $240 billion this year, with potential for $1 trillion longer-term, emphasizing wallets as key for access and real-time interaction.
