Researchers question Anthropic's claim of 90% autonomous AI hacking

Anthropic reported detecting a Chinese state-sponsored hacking campaign that used its Claude AI to automate up to 90% of attacks on dozens of targets. Outside experts, however, are skeptical of the claims, arguing the results show only incremental improvements similar to existing tools. The campaign targeted at least 30 organizations but succeeded in only a small number of cases.

In September 2025, Anthropic discovered what it described as the 'first reported AI-orchestrated cyber espionage campaign,' conducted by a Chinese state-sponsored group tracked as GTG-1002. The hackers employed Anthropic's Claude AI tool, specifically Claude Code, to automate up to 90% of the work in attacks aimed at at least 30 organizations, including major technology corporations and government agencies. Human intervention was required only sporadically, perhaps at 4-6 critical decision points per campaign, according to Anthropic's reports published on Thursday.

The framework used Claude as an orchestration mechanism to break complex multi-stage attacks into smaller tasks, such as vulnerability scanning, credential validation, data extraction, and lateral movement. It progressed through phases including reconnaissance, initial access, persistence, and data exfiltration, adapting based on discovered information. Anthropic highlighted the implications for cybersecurity, stating, 'This campaign has substantial implications for cybersecurity in the age of AI ‘agents’—systems that can be run autonomously for long periods of time and that complete complex tasks largely independent of human intervention.' The company noted that agents are valuable for productivity but could increase the viability of large-scale cyberattacks in the wrong hands.

However, independent researchers questioned the significance of these findings. Dan Tentler, executive founder of Phobos Group, told Ars Technica, 'I continue to refuse to believe that attackers are somehow able to get these models to jump through hoops that nobody else can. Why do the models give these attackers what they want 90% of the time but the rest of us have to deal with ass-kissing, stonewalling, and acid trips?' Experts compared AI's role to longstanding tools like Metasploit, which improved efficiency without dramatically enhancing attack potency or stealth.

Anthropic acknowledged limitations, including Claude's tendency to hallucinate by overstating findings or fabricating data, such as claiming non-functional credentials or public information as discoveries. This required validation and hindered full autonomy. The attacks relied on readily available open-source software, and only a small number succeeded, raising doubts about AI's overall impact compared to traditional methods. Independent researcher Kevin Beaumont stated, 'The threat actors aren’t inventing something new here.' Anthropic warned of threat actors using AI at an unprecedented rate, but data suggests mixed results rather than a breakthrough.

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