Robinhood's stock drops 12.2% after Q4 earnings miss

Robinhood Markets reported fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of US$1,283 million, surpassing the previous year's US$1,014 million but falling short of expectations due to a 38% decline in crypto transaction revenue. Net income decreased to US$605 million from US$916 million. The results have raised questions about the company's diversification strategy amid ongoing share repurchases and product expansions.

In February 2026, Robinhood Markets, Inc. released its financial results for the fourth quarter of 2025, revealing revenue of US$1,283 million, an increase from US$1,014 million in the same period a year earlier. However, the figure missed analyst expectations, primarily because of a sharp 38% drop in crypto transaction revenue. Net income for the quarter fell to US$605 million, down from US$916 million the previous year, even as the company pursued share repurchases and emphasized growth in various product lines.

The earnings report highlighted efforts to broaden Robinhood's platform beyond volatile trading activities. Management noted that 11 products now each generate over US$100 million in annualized revenue. Plans include launching a credit card and expanding banking and prediction market offerings to reduce dependence on crypto and options trading.

This performance has intensified scrutiny on Robinhood's transition from a trading-focused platform to a more stable financial ecosystem. The company projects US$5.3 billion in revenue and US$1.8 billion in earnings by 2028, with a fair value estimate of US$132.19 per share, suggesting a 74% upside from current levels. Some analysts had anticipated even stronger figures, around US$8.2 billion in revenue and US$3.0 billion in earnings by that year, but the crypto shortfall underscores uncertainties, including potential regulatory pressures on payment for order flow and tokenized assets.

Following the announcement, Robinhood's stock (HOOD) declined by 12.2%, reflecting investor concerns over the slower-than-expected diversification progress.

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Illustration of Coinbase stock rebounding after earnings miss and AWS outage, with Bitcoin above $80,000.
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Coinbase rebounds after earnings miss and aws outage

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Coinbase shares recovered 10 percent from session lows on Friday following a weaker-than-expected first-quarter report and a multi-hour trading outage tied to Amazon Web Services failures. Bitcoin held above $80,000 while several altcoins posted gains of 5 to 12 percent.

Robinhood is reducing its workforce by approximately 10 percent. The move affects staff from a base of roughly 2,900 employees. The company aims to streamline operations following weaker first-quarter results.

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Tokenized equities on Robinhood Chain have driven a sharp increase in real-world assets, which reached about $70 million in value after a fivefold rise in less than two weeks.

Amazon reported first-quarter revenue of $181.5 billion, surpassing Wall Street expectations with a 17% year-over-year increase. CEO Andy Jassy highlighted the success of Project Hail Mary, which has earned nearly $615 million at the box office to date. Amazon Web Services revenue reached $37.6 billion, up 28%.

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A wave of cryptocurrency exchange initial public offerings in 2025 highlighted the sector's maturation, but recent setbacks reveal heavy dependence on Bitcoin's price movements. Gemini's post-IPO struggles and Kraken's frozen listing underscore vulnerabilities to market cycles. Exchanges must prove revenue stability beyond Bitcoin rallies to sustain investor interest.

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