FanGraphs projections position the Boston Red Sox to boast the top starting rotation in Major League Baseball for the 2026 season, surpassing even the defending champions from Philadelphia. This outlook stems from key offseason acquisitions and the removal of underperforming pitchers, marking a significant improvement from their 12th-place ranking in 2025. The projected 18.3 WAR for Boston's rotation edges out the Los Angeles Dodgers by two wins.
The Red Sox's ascent in FanGraphs' 2026 projections highlights a strategic overhaul of their pitching staff. In 2025, Boston's starters accumulated 11.6 fWAR, placing them 12th league-wide and a full 10 WAR behind the leaders. Now, with an projected 18.3 fWAR, they top the list, ahead of the Dodgers (17.1), Tigers (16.1), Phillies (15.8), and a tie between the Pirates and Blue Jays (15.1 each). This +6.7 WAR improvement ranks as the largest in MLB, just ahead of Toronto's +6.6.
Central to this projection is ace Garrett Crochet, whose elite performance already anchored the 2025 group and continues to elevate Boston's ceiling. Projections place him among the top three starters in baseball, alongside Detroit's Tarik Skubal and Pittsburgh's Paul Skenes. Offseason moves added depth: right-hander Sonny Gray, acquired from St. Louis, is expected to rank as a top-10 starter despite his 36 years and 4.28 ERA last season, buoyed by strong underlying metrics. Left-hander Ranger Suárez signed a five-year deal after consistent run prevention in limited innings over four MLB seasons. Johan Oviedo, obtained from Pittsburgh, showed promise in nine starts post-Tommy John surgery, hinting at a potential breakout.
Boston also strengthened by subtraction. Among nine pitchers with at least five starts in 2025, four delivered negative fWAR: Walker Buehler (-0.6 in 22 starts), Richard Fitts (-0.2 in 10), Tanner Houck (-0.3 in nine), and Dustin May (-0.1 in five). Buehler, Fitts, and May have departed, while Houck rehabs from Tommy John and may return late in 2026. Brayan Bello remains a solid mid-rotation option.
Depth bolsters the outlook. The top five—Crochet, Gray, Suárez, Bello, and Oviedo—are projected for 83.7% of innings, but injuries are inevitable; every 2025 team used at least eight starters. Returning from injuries are Kutter Crawford and Patrick Sandoval, both absent last year. Prospects Connelly Early and Payton Tolle impressed in brief 2025 debuts and rank highly among left-handed pitching talents. Kyle Harrison, 24, offers upside with 37 big-league starts. This surplus even allows trade flexibility for position players without compromising pitching.
Projections, of course, are not guarantees, but Boston's moves position them favorably for 2026.
