The South African Weather Service has updated its forecast to predict below-normal rainfall in the southwestern and southern coastal parts during winter until August. This drier outlook raises concerns for the winter wheat crop amid rising fuel and fertiliser prices linked to the Iran conflict. Eastern coastal areas may see above-normal rain, heightening flood risks.
The South African Weather Service released its monthly Seasonal Climate Watch report, forecasting below-normal rainfall for the southwestern and southern coastal parts through the winter season ending in August.
This marks a shift from last month's prediction, which anticipated above-normal rainfall in the southeast into early winter. Southeastern and eastern coastal areas are now expected to receive above-normal rainfall in late autumn, with only eastern coastal areas seeing it continue into winter.
The drier conditions in the southwest threaten the winter wheat crop, especially with sharply rising fuel and fertiliser prices triggered by the Iran conflict, which currently has a two-week ceasefire. Western Cape dam levels stand at about 60%, per the Department of Water Affairs and Sanitation, and could face added pressure from below-normal rain combined with above-normal temperatures.
"Below-normal rainfall conditions expected in southwestern and southern coastal parts, coupled with largely forecasted above-normal minimum and maximum temperatures for most parts of SA during the late autumn and winter seasons, are likely to increase water loss, adding pressure on water-scarce regions," the weather service stated.
Eastern coastal regions, including parts of Durban that recently flooded, risk another disaster season, recalling the 2022 events. The service also noted that the La Niña pattern has ended and predictions point to a strengthening El Niño by spring.
