After Democrats notched 2025 wins in Virginia and New Jersey, some strategists argue transgender-rights attacks fell flat — but both parties are preparing to fight over the issue again in 2026.
Democrats’ 2025 victories in Virginia and New Jersey have prompted claims that anti-transgender messaging backfired this cycle. “Republicans went all in on anti-trans messaging for the 2025 election,” NOTUS reported after Election Day. “It didn’t work.” GOP operatives nevertheless say they’ll keep pressing the issue into the 2026 midterms. (notus.org)
In Nevada, the debate is already shaping the governor’s race. Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo is seeking a second term; Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford formally launched his challenge in July. Nonpartisan handicappers rate the contest a toss-up. (reviewjournal.com)
Lombardo has aligned with efforts to limit transgender participation in girls’ and women’s sports. In 2024, when members of the University of Nevada, Reno women’s volleyball team declined to face San Jose State because of a transgender player on the Spartans’ roster, Lombardo posted on X that he respected the players’ decision, adding: “No student athlete should ever be pressured to play a game where they don’t feel safe — period.” Multiple teams forfeited against San Jose State that season, and a federal judge later rejected an attempt to sideline the SJSU player ahead of the conference tournament. (reviewjournal.com)
Lombardo has also signaled support for advancing the issue at the ballot box. At a September campaign stop, he told supporters he would pursue a ballot initiative focused on “men in women’s sports,” according to the Pahrump Valley Times. (The outlet’s write-ups of his rural tour describe the stops; a separate Daily Wire report quotes Lombardo more directly.) (pvtimes.com)
Ford has staked out opposing positions in several high‑profile cases. In January 2022, his office joined a multistate amicus brief urging the Eighth Circuit to keep blocking Arkansas’ law restricting gender‑affirming care for minors. “We must protect our children from discriminatory laws that bar access to necessary, gender‑affirming health care,” he said then. Nevada also joined a coalition brief in the Ninth Circuit supporting two transgender girls, ages 11 and 15, in an Arizona sports case; the filing argued the plaintiffs had not undergone male puberty and had “no ascertainable competitive advantage” over peers. (ag.nv.gov)
Ford has opposed recent federal moves on identification documents as well. In March 2025, Nevada was among eight states signing a comment letter objecting to proposed State Department passport changes that would restrict gender markers, arguing they conflict with state laws and harm transgender residents. (doj.state.or.us)
Maine is another front where policy fights may reach voters directly. Signature gatherers are pushing a 2026 ballot initiative to bar transgender students from girls’ teams and from locker rooms that don’t match sex at birth, setting up a potential collision with the state’s Human Rights Act. (wgme.com)
The politics could also spill into Maine’s marquee U.S. Senate race. Republican Sen. Susan Collins is seeking a sixth term in 2026 and could face Democratic Gov. Janet Mills, who has signaled defiance of federal directives limiting transgender participation in school sports, or other Democrats such as Graham Platner, a Sullivan harbormaster and Marine veteran. Mills has moved toward a Senate bid, and Platner has already announced; national outlets have framed Maine as a key Senate battleground. (apnews.com)
In February, the White House issued an executive order titled “Keeping Men Out of Women’s Sports,” directing agencies to prioritize Title IX enforcement and authorizing the rescission of funding from education programs that “deprive women and girls of fair athletic opportunities.” Maine’s high‑school sports body said it would continue following state law, which bars discrimination based on gender identity. The Daily Wire also reported an on‑camera exchange between President Trump and Mills at a governors’ meeting that day; Mills replied she would “comply with state and federal law,” and the president warned of funding losses. (whitehouse.gov)
More broadly, the administration’s policies have elevated transgender issues nationally, including separate legal fights over passports and other federal rules. But for 2026, Nevada’s competitive governor’s race and a likely Maine ballot test ensure school sports policies will remain a potent — and polarizing — campaign theme. (doj.state.or.us)
