Microsoft marks the 40th anniversary of Windows on November 20, 2025, as the operating system faces declining market share and rising competition from Linux. Launched in 1985 as a graphical interface for MS-DOS, Windows has powered billions of devices but now grapples with user frustrations over privacy, hardware demands, and updates. Linux's desktop adoption is climbing, particularly in the U.S., signaling a shift in the OS landscape.
Windows originated in 1985 as a graphical user interface for MS-DOS, introducing features like multitasking and mouse support that revolutionized personal computing. By the 1990s, Windows 95 solidified its dominance, though it faced antitrust scrutiny for monopolistic practices. Today, on its 40th anniversary, the OS powers about 71% of desktops worldwide, but its share has eroded, dropping over 5% since December 2024, according to StatCounter data reported in PCMag.
Linux, the open-source alternative, is gaining traction. In the U.S., it surpassed 5% desktop market share in June 2025, a record high per StatCounter, reaching 5.03% as noted by WebProNews. Globally, Linux holds around 3% on desktops (It's FOSS), while across all devices, Windows stands at 27.39%, trailing Android's 44.51% (Wikipedia). Key drivers include the end of Windows 10 support in October 2025 and Windows 11's TPM 2.0 requirement, which excludes older hardware. Over 60% of Windows 10 users are considering Linux, with Reddit discussions in r/linux highlighting seamless switches to distributions like Ubuntu or Fedora. One post stated, “I think everyone here knows that Windows 10 support is ending next year.”
User dissatisfaction with Windows' telemetry, forced updates, and AI features like Copilot fuels the migration. Tom Warren of The Verge noted that “power users are increasingly frustrated” with these integrations. Linux's appeal stems from its free, customizable nature; Fortune Business Insights projects its market growing from $26.41 billion in 2025 to $99.69 billion by 2032. A report from OpenPR emphasized, “Linux has become the backbone of enterprise IT,” citing superior stability and security. In servers, Linux powers over 90%, and tools like Proton are enabling more gaming on the platform, challenging Windows' stronghold.
Emerging markets like India boost Linux adoption due to cost and customization benefits. Microsoft has responded with features in Windows 11, but backlash over ads and mandatory accounts persists. As Windows Central observed, “Its future has never been less certain.” Analysts from TechRadar predict Linux could reach double-digit desktop share soon, especially after Windows 10's end-of-life.