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Realistic illustration of Texas GOP redistricting map amid falling Latino poll support, with warning graphs and discontented voters.
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Texas GOP redistricting bet on Latino support faces warning signs in new polls

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Republicans in Texas are advancing a congressional redistricting plan that assumes Latino voters will back the GOP at levels similar to, or higher than, those seen in the 2024 election. But surveys cited by UnidosUS and other researchers suggest rising discontent among Latino voters with Donald Trump and congressional Republicans, raising questions about the strategy’s durability heading into 2026.

Latino voters who shifted toward Donald Trump in 2024 moved back toward Democrats in last week’s off-year elections, with notable gains in New Jersey, Virginia and parts of California. The trend raises questions about the durability of Trump’s coalition amid economic unease and aggressive immigration enforcement, while giving Democrats fresh hope for 2026.

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With Election Day on November 4, 2025, approaching, Democratic nominee Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli are scrambling to boost Latino turnout in Passaic County, a plurality‑Latino area that swung toward the GOP in 2024. On-the-ground organizers and local officials describe muted enthusiasm and some logistical hurdles, even as both campaigns step up outreach.

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