Ariel Hidalgo cautions against blindly trusting promises from representatives of a foreign power regarding Cuba's future, drawing parallels to recent events in Venezuela. He argues that the spontaneous July 11 uprising marked the start of a new revolutionary process that could lead to radical change.
In an opinion piece published in Havana Times, Ariel Hidalgo examines parallels between Venezuela's current situation and what might unfold in Cuba. He describes how, following Nicolás Maduro's capture nearly two months ago, Delcy Rodríguez rose to the presidency with Washington's approval, accompanied by a slow release of political prisoners without guarantees against re-arrest, the persistence of dictatorial structures, and Donald Trump's control over Venezuelan oil, including a photo of himself as Venezuela's president.
Hidalgo voices concern over a potential 'friendly takeover of Cuba' along similar lines, particularly given reports of a cabinet comprising regime figures. While he does not wish to dampen hopes and believes Cuba's freedom is closer than ever, he urges caution against blindly trusting such foreign promises.
He highlights the July 11, 2021, uprising, which was not organized by dissidents, the CIA, or Cubans in Miami but emerged spontaneously, shaking the foundations of power. Despite repression and draconian sentences, Hidalgo views it as a political victory that began a pre-revolutionary process, akin to the 1950s era, which lasted five and a half years from the Moncada Barracks assault to the dictator's flight. Cuba's process has now lasted nearly five years.
The author argues that Cuba has seen no radical changes for a long time, only superficial reforms preserving a failed system. The regime fears the people, and the demonstrations awakened many consciousnesses. To avert a social explosion, Hidalgo recommends the government free all political prisoners and engage in dialogue with dissidents—who represent the people—rather than repressive measures like internet shutdowns or arrests, which cannot halt spontaneous uprisings. If unable to stop the revolution from below, they should join it from above.
