The ninth annual Morgan Stanley Swiss Watcher report reveals that leading Swiss watch brands like Rolex and Cartier gained market share in 2025 amid industry challenges. Overall production volumes fell to 14.6 million units, down significantly from previous peaks, as brands focused on higher-priced models. Swatch Group disputed the report's estimates, claiming stronger performance than indicated.
The Morgan Stanley and LuxeConsult Swiss Watcher report for 2025 shows a Swiss watch industry increasingly dominated by a few top brands, with total export volumes declining to 14.6 million watches, a 44% drop since 2008 and 51% from the 2011 peak. This upscaling trend saw watches priced above CHF 50,000 account for 37% of export value and 89% of growth, despite comprising only 1.4% of volumes.
Rolex led with estimated sales rising 4% to over CHF 11 billion for the first time, while reducing production by 2% to about 1.15 million watches—the second consecutive year of lower output, a pattern not seen in over two decades. The brand now represents roughly one-third of industry sales, with average retail prices increasing 6% to CHF 14,000. Rolex declined to comment on the figures.
Cartier, part of Richemont, along with independents Audemars Piguet and Patek Philippe, also posted gains. Richard Mille maintained its position with CHF 1.75 billion in sales from around 6,000 watches. The four largest private brands—Rolex, Audemars Piguet, Patek Philippe, and Richard Mille—captured 49% of the market, up from 37% in 2019. Substituting Omega for Patek Philippe and Richard Mille, Rolex, Cartier, Audemars Piguet, and Omega accounted for 55% of sales.
Oliver Müller of LuxeConsult praised Cartier, stating, "Cartier does extraordinary work keeping things balanced and at an accessible price."
Swatch Group brands faced declines, with Omega dropping to fifth in sales rankings and Longines falling 18% to CHF 920 million, exiting the 'Billionaires Club.' A Swatch spokesperson criticized the report, saying it contains "wrong estimations, assumptions, data, figures, and statements," and claimed the company outpaced the 1.7% market decline with 4.7% sales growth at constant exchange rates in the second half.
Lower-end performers included Tudor, up 2% to CHF 460 million; IWC, up 5% with new Ingenieur models; and Jaeger-LeCoultre, with marginal sales growth on 7% lower volumes. Christopher Ward surged 50% to CHF 51 million on 39,000 watches, entering the top 50, while Raymond Weil grew to CHF 79 million, rising three spots. Analysts noted, "With retail prices ranging from CHF 2,000 to CHF 5,000, Christopher Ward and Raymond Weil offer strong value propositions in terms of features, design, and perceived quality."
Jacob & Co. saw the fastest growth, with sales up 14% to CHF 180 million and volumes increasing 24%.