AfD close behind Greens in poll ahead of state election

Twelve days before the state election in Baden-Württemberg, an Insa poll shows the Greens at 22 percent just ahead of the AfD at 20 percent, with the CDU leading at 28 percent. In a campaign debate, the top candidates presented their plans with a touch of humor. The parties agreed on reducing bureaucracy and strengthening the economy.

The state election in Baden-Württemberg is set for March 8, 2026. A recent representative Insa poll commissioned by the „Bild“ newspaper shows the CDU remaining the strongest force with 28 percent of the vote. The Greens reach 22 percent, narrowing their gap to the CDU from eight percentage points at the end of January (poll for „Nius“) to now six percentage points. In October 2025, the gap was still 14 percentage points (poll for „Schwäbische Zeitung“).

The AfD is at 20 percent, just behind the Greens, making the race for second place exciting. The SPD scores 10 percent, the Left 7 percent. The FDP achieves 6 percent and would thus enter the state parliament again. A continuation of the Green-Black coalition is considered likely.

At a podium organized by the „Reutlinger General-Anzeiger“ in Reutlingen's city hall, the top candidates Cem Özdemir (Greens), Manuel Hagel (CDU), Andreas Stoch (SPD), Hans-Ulrich Rülke (FDP), and Markus Frohnmaier (AfD) appeared. They described what they would do first after an election victory. Hagel said: „I would first invite Winfried Kretschmann to breakfast and hand over.“ Özdemir added: „I would first call Hagel and then Stoch and Rülke. And say that we also need the opposition.“

All candidates emphasized the need to reduce bureaucracy and strengthen Baden-Württemberg as a business location. They largely repeated their known positions.

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Illustration of Insa poll showing CDU at 27% leading Greens at 24% in tight Baden-Württemberg election race.
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Grüne close in on CDU in Baden-Württemberg Insa poll

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Ahead of the Baden-Württemberg state election, the Greens have gained ground in a new Insa poll, trailing the CDU by just three points. The CDU leads with 27 percent, the Greens with 24 percent. The vote is set for Sunday.

A new poll shows the Greens in Baden-Württemberg just one percentage point behind the CDU. The Greens poll at 27 percent, the CDU at 28 percent, days before the state election on March 8. The Greens' rise is linked to controversy over an old video of CDU candidate Manuel Hagel.

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Just nine months before the state election in Saxony-Anhalt, CDU lead candidate Sven Schulze has warned against AfD involvement in the government. He stressed that it would cause immense damage to the state and Germany. Recent polls show the AfD leading.

At the CDU federal party congress in Stuttgart, Chancellor Friedrich Merz was confirmed as party leader with 91.2 percent of the votes. The vote was delayed by over three hours due to technical issues with digital voting, leading to paper ballots. Former Chancellor Angela Merkel missed the announcement but congratulated him via SMS.

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In Brandenburg, SPD and CDU are close to finalizing a coalition agreement. Minister President Dietmar Woidke and CDU state leader Jan Redmann plan to present it on Wednesday. Cabinet personnel assignments remain unresolved.

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) is likened to an extremist beaver gnawing at the pillars of liberal democracy. The dispute over the Otto-Wels Hall in the Reichstag highlights how symbolic debates benefit the party. Democratic parties must create clarity in 2026 and combat the AfD on substantive issues.

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Jan van Aken, leader of Die Linke, rules out a coalition with the CDU in the upcoming Saxony-Anhalt state election to block an AfD government. Instead, he is open to supporting a CDU-led minority government on specific issues, provided there is no cooperation with the AfD.

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