Fear of migration wave to Europe from Iran war

The war in Iran raises concerns about a potential migration wave to Europe. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz called for preventing uncontrolled movements from Iran, while international organizations warn of a humanitarian emergency. Despite 100,000 departures from Tehran, no wave has been observed at borders yet.

Fighting in Iran continues, with strikes hitting not only military infrastructure but also fuel depots, causing an 'oil rain' that affects the civilian population. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) described the growing crisis in the Middle East as a major humanitarian emergency on Friday.

In its annual report on March 3, the European Union Agency for Asylum stated that the magnitude of the potential risk of a migration wave is significant. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz echoed this on March 6, saying: 'We must prevent uncontrolled migratory movements from Iran. We do not want to see the Syrian scenario repeated here.'

Iranian road police recorded 100,000 departures from Tehran during the first two days of strikes. However, neighboring countries have not yet reported any migration wave, though they would be the first affected.

These statements highlight European concerns amid the conflict's escalation, without confirming a massive movement so far.

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Photorealistic illustration of crowded anti-government protests in Tehran streets, with riot police, tear gas, hesitant security forces, and closed bazaar shops amid ethnic tensions and economic unrest.
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Iran’s Latest Protest Wave Intensifies as Analysts Warn of Instability, Citing Security Defections and Ethnic Tensions

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A new wave of anti-government protests in Iran, triggered by deepening economic stress, has expanded beyond merchant strikes in Tehran’s bazaar and spread across much of the country, according to rights groups and international media reports. A U.S.-based commentator and several human rights monitors say authorities have responded with mass arrests and a widening crackdown since last summer’s 12-day Iran-Israel conflict, while analysts warn that any sudden breakdown of central control could create regional security risks.

US and Israeli attacks on Iran, including the killing of high-ranking leaders, raise concerns in Germany. A newsletter addresses reader questions on terror threats, energy prices, and military bases. Experts warn of potential escalation in the region.

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On the fifth day of the war in Iran, Tehran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has driven up oil and gas prices, affecting the global economy. European gas prices rose from 32 to 49 euros per MWh, while Brent crude climbed from 72 to 82 dollars per barrel. Europe, vulnerable due to its reliance on imports, faces heightened risks if the conflict drags on.

Due to the war between the USA, Israel, and Iran, tens of thousands of travelers are stranded in the Middle East. The German government is organizing return flights, but affected individuals may have to contribute to the costs. Travel operators like Tui and Dertour promise to cover these costs if their customers use the flights.

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The Swedish Foreign Ministry (UD) has tightened its travel advisory for Iran, urging all Swedish citizens in the country to leave immediately due to the deteriorating security situation. Protests that erupted on December 28 have led to violence and hundreds of deaths. The advisory remains in effect until further notice.

The United States has deployed an aircraft carrier strike group to Middle Eastern waters, as Tehran warns of retaliation against any American attack in response to the crackdown on anti-government protests. Rights groups have confirmed nearly 6,000 deaths in the protests suppressed by Iranian security forces, though the actual toll could be several times higher. An 18-day internet shutdown has obscured the full extent of the violence.

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As Iran's protests—sparked by economic woes in late December 2025—rage on under a near-total internet blackout, with reports now citing hundreds dead, Swedish-Iranians are voicing anguish over lost contact with family and urging global support. Despite the brutality, many see hope for regime change.

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