The war between the United States, Israel, and Iran, started on February 28, 2026, has driven oil prices above 100 dollars per barrel, closing the Strait of Hormuz and creating volatility in global markets. In Mexico, this could mean additional oil revenues of 406 billion pesos if the average price holds at 90 dollars for the year. However, the conflict has also depreciated the Mexican peso and accelerated inflation to 4.02 percent in February.
The armed conflict in the Middle East began on February 28, 2026, with bombings by the United States and Israel against Iran, resulting in the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Jamenei. Iran responded by appointing his son, Mojtba Jamenei, as the new supreme leader, and the Revolutionary Guard threatened to attack oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to its partial closure and paralyzing crude transit, which accounts for one-fifth of global supply.
Oil prices surged: WTI reached 101.88 dollars per barrel on March 9, up 12 percent, while Brent traded at 99.13 dollars, rising 6.95 percent. Mexico's export mix closed last week at 83.64 dollars, its highest in two years and four months, 52.7 percent above the Secretariat of Finance's forecast (54.9 dollars).
According to the Mexican Institute for Competitiveness (IMCO), if the average price closes at 90 dollars, Mexico would gain 406 billion pesos in extra oil revenues. Each additional dollar generates about 11.6 billion pesos, but IMCO warns that reactivating fiscal stimuli for gasoline IEPS could nullify these benefits, as in 2022 with 395.4 billion pesos in subsidies.
The impact on Mexico includes currency volatility: the peso depreciated to 18.0017 per dollar on March 8, breaking the 18-unit ceiling for the first time since December 2025, though it recovered on March 9 to 17.6711, appreciating 0.74 percent. Annual inflation rose to 4.02 percent in February, exceeding Banxico's target range (3 percent ±1 point), driven by increases in vegetables and food, though underlying inflation slowed slightly to 4.50 percent.
President Donald Trump described the oil price rise as a 'small price to pay' to 'subdue' Iran, while countries like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Iraq cut production due to the strait closure. Analysts like Giovanni Staunovo of UBS warn that a prolonged closure would push prices even higher to curb demand. President Claudia Sheinbaum stated that reactivating IEPS stimuli is not considered necessary now, though it is contemplated if prices climb further.
