As the NBA All-Star Weekend nears, a limited slate of three games on Thursday features notable player prop recommendations from projection models. SportsLine's model highlights LeBron James exceeding 22.5 points against the Dallas Mavericks, while FanDuel Research targets Luguentz Dort's three-pointers and Deni Avdija's points total. These picks account for injuries and recent performances ahead of the break.
Thursday's NBA action includes the Los Angeles Lakers facing the Dallas Mavericks, Portland Trail Blazers versus Utah Jazz, and Oklahoma City Thunder against Milwaukee Bucks, all before the All-Star pause.
SportsLine's Projection Model, which simulates games 10,000 times and has a strong track record on NBA picks, recommends betting over on LeBron James' 22.5 points (-125 odds). The 41-year-old James, who missed the season's first month, is projected to score 25.8 points. The Mavericks rank 21st in points allowed per game at 117.3 and will miss Cooper Flagg (foot) and Luka Doncic (hamstring), making James the focal point.
For the Trail Blazers-Jazz matchup, the model suggests under on Donovan Clingan's 12.5 rebounds (-115). The former UConn player averages 11.4 rebounds, leading the league with 4.7 offensive boards, but has grabbed just 16 in his last two games. It projects him at 10.4 rebounds against a middling Jazz rebounding team.
Also for Portland, under on Jrue Holiday's 6.5 assists (-125) is advised. Holiday averages 6.5 assists, a three-year high, but has five or fewer in six of his last eight games and 4.8 career versus Utah. The projection is 4.9 assists.
FanDuel Research, using its projections, picks Luguentz Dort to make 2+ threes (-162) for the Thunder. With Jalen Williams and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander likely out, Dort faces a Bucks defense allowing the second-most made threes to shooting guards (3.7 per game). He averages 1.9 threes this season but has a strong home shooting history.
For Deni Avdija of the Trail Blazers, the under on 23.5 points (-132) is favored. Avdija, a Most Improved Player frontrunner, averages 34.2 minutes but has been limited to 26 in his two games since a four-game injury absence, scoring 11 and 26 points. This back-to-back and pre-break timing may cap his minutes further, with his road average at 23.4 points.
