The SportsLine Projection Model simulates NBA games 10,000 times and recommends betting on the New York Knicks to upset the Philadelphia 76ers and the Atlanta Hawks over the Charlotte Hornets on Wednesday. It also projects the over in the Golden State Warriors-San Antonio Spurs contest. These selections highlight value ahead of the All-Star break.
Wednesday's 14-game NBA slate offers opportunities according to the SportsLine Projection Model, which has a 38-17 record on top-rated spread picks since last season. In the featured Eastern Conference matchup, the Philadelphia 76ers host the New York Knicks at 7:30 p.m. ET. The 76ers are favored, but the model gives the Knicks a 60% win probability, making them a best bet at +114 odds. The over/under is set at 224.5 points.
The Knicks recently suffered a 137-134 overtime loss to the Indiana Pacers on Tuesday and hold a 9-2 record over their last 11 games, including a 112-109 victory at Philadelphia on January 24. They are 8-3 against the 76ers over the last three seasons, excluding a six-game playoff series win two years ago. The 76ers have dropped two of their last three games.
Another recommended underdog is the Atlanta Hawks at +164 against the Charlotte Hornets. The model projects a 47% win chance for the Hawks, exceeding the implied 37.9% odds. The Hornets saw their nine-game winning streak end with a loss to the Detroit Pistons on Monday, holding a 11-14 home record this season. The Hawks, at 26-29 overall, are 6-4 in their last 10 games and 16-14 on the road.
In the Western Conference, the Golden State Warriors (29-25) host the San Antonio Spurs (37-16) at 10 p.m. ET from Chase Center in San Francisco. The Spurs lead as 6.5-point favorites with a 220.5 over/under. The model forecasts 229 total points, hitting the over in 61% of simulations. The Warriors have seen the over in 57.4% of their games, third-highest in the league, while the Spurs' last four contests exceeded their totals. The teams' four meetings since 2025 averaged 235.3 points, all over 231.5.
Injuries impact the Warriors-Spurs game: Stephen Curry is out with a knee issue, as is Kristaps Porziņģis with an Achilles injury. Stephon Castle is questionable for San Antonio due to a pelvic contusion. The Warriors won both prior matchups this season and recently rallied for a 114-113 win over Memphis on Monday. The Spurs have won five straight, including 136-108 over the Los Angeles Lakers on Tuesday.
For college basketball, expert Thomas Casale backs Texas A&M (-6.5) against Missouri at 9 p.m. ET. "This feels like a good time to buy low on Texas A&M," Casale said. "The Aggies fought to the wire against Alabama, but that 100-97 loss appeared to take a lot out of them. A&M had no juice in the first half versus Florida, scoring just 19 points. They did wake up and score 48 in the second half, but it was too little, too late. This is a bad matchup for a Missouri team that struggles with turnovers and guarding the three-point line. I think Texas A&M rebounds from two straight losses with a big win at home here."
