ANIF survey foresees interest rate rising to 12.50%

An ANIF survey published on July 24, 2026, indicates that the Banco de la República board would raise the intervention rate to 12.50% at its July meeting.

The survey polled 21 analysts. Fourteen of them, or 66.7%, anticipate a 50 basis point increase. Three expect a 25 basis point rise, three foresee 75 basis points and one expects no change.

ANIF noted that a level between 12.25% and 12.75% had not been seen since April 2024. Analysts agree the decision will not be unanimous, with 20 of the 21 respondents expecting three board members to dissent.

Analysts identified Germán Ávila, César Giraldo and Laura Moisá as possible dissenters in the event of a 50 basis point or larger increase. The July meeting would be the last rate decision during Gustavo Petro's government.

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Banco de la República board unanimously holds interest rate at 11.25% in meeting with Finance Minister amid inflation and political tensions.
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Banco de la República unanimously holds interest rate at 11.25%, defying hike expectations amid government tensions

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In its May 1, 2026 board meeting, Banco de la República unanimously kept the benchmark interest rate at 11.25%, surprising analysts expecting a hike to combat accelerating inflation. Finance Minister Germán Ávila participated fully, citing constructive dialogue, while board members justified the decision to maintain stability amid political pressures.

Colombia’s Banco de la República raised interest rates to 12 percent on June 30, 2026, an increase of 75 basis points from 11.25 percent. The decision came during the central bank’s penultimate meeting of the year.

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Technical manager Hernando Vargas presented the Banco de la República's Monetary Policy Report, highlighting the interest rate hike and lower-than-expected GDP growth.

Economy Minister Airlangga Hartarto and Investment Minister Rosan Roeslani urged state-owned banks not to rush in raising lending rates after Bank Indonesia lifted the benchmark rate to 5.75 percent.

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The South African Reserve Bank kept its repo rate steady at 7 percent on Thursday, though a divided Monetary Policy Committee vote and warnings of upside inflation risks signal possible future hikes.

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