Central bank raises rates by 200 basis points amid rising inflation

Technical manager Hernando Vargas presented the Banco de la República's Monetary Policy Report, highlighting the interest rate hike and lower-than-expected GDP growth.

Hernando Vargas, technical manager of Banco de la República, explained that total inflation reached 5.6% in the first quarter of 2026, an increase of 0.5 points since December. Core inflation hit 5.8%, after rising 0.8 points.

The board raised the interest rate by 200 basis points between January and March to restore a disinflationary stance. Vargas stated that "it is evident that raising interest rates brings down inflation and not the other way around".

First-quarter GDP grew 2.1%, below the 3.2% forecast. The issuer now projects 2.4% growth for 2026 and 2.1% for 2027, while inflation would end 2026 at 6.4% and fall to 3.7% in December 2027.

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Banco de la República board unanimously holds interest rate at 11.25% in meeting with Finance Minister amid inflation and political tensions.
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Banco de la República unanimously holds interest rate at 11.25%, defying hike expectations amid government tensions

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In its May 1, 2026 board meeting, Banco de la República unanimously kept the benchmark interest rate at 11.25%, surprising analysts expecting a hike to combat accelerating inflation. Finance Minister Germán Ávila participated fully, citing constructive dialogue, while board members justified the decision to maintain stability amid political pressures.

Following its January hike to 10.25%, Colombia's Banco de la República raised its intervention rate by another 100 basis points to 11.25% in a tight 4-3 vote during its second meeting of the year. Finance Minister Germán Ávila walked out of the board meeting and announced the government's withdrawal from the central bank over disagreements. President Gustavo Petro backed the move and criticized the monetary policy.

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The Banco de la República released its Monthly Survey of Economists' Expectations, forecasting year-end inflation at 6.32% and interest rates at 12.25%. These projections mark an upward revision from March. Experts anticipate a gradual moderation in subsequent years.

The Central Bank council agreed unanimously to hold the monetary policy rate at 4.5% in its June meeting.

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Mexico's central bank cut its benchmark rate to 6.75% in a split decision, as global markets closed lower amid the US-Iran war. The BMV fell 1.65%, and the peso depreciated 1% against the dollar. Oil prices rose due to the Strait of Hormuz closure.

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