Illustration of central bank analysts reviewing inflation and exchange rate forecasts.
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Central Bank projects 2.3% inflation for May and dollar at 1,422 in June

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አማርኛ

The Central Bank's Market Expectations Survey adjusted its forecasts for inflation and the exchange rate in 2026.

According to the latest Market Expectations Survey published on June 4, inflation for May is expected at 2.3% and core inflation at 2.2%. The official INDEC figure will be released on June 11. Projections show inflation continuing to decline: 2.1% in June, 2.0% in July, 1.8% in August and 1.9% in September. Accumulated inflation for 2026 is estimated at 30.5%, 1.5 percentage points below the previous survey. The official dollar is projected at 1,422 pesos for June and 1,658 pesos for December, with a year-on-year variation of 14.5%. GDP would grow 2.9% for the year, with unemployment falling to 7.4% in the fourth quarter.

ሰዎች ምን እያሉ ነው

Initial reactions on X to the BCRA's REM survey show mostly neutral reporting and sharing of the 2.3% May inflation projection, with analysts noting stable expectations, slight downward revisions for later months, and some personal estimates or dollar forecasts for 2026.

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Argentine President Javier Milei celebrating falling inflation rates to 2.6% in April
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April inflation falls to 2.6% as Milei hails the data

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The National Institute of Statistics and Censuses reported the consumer price index at 2.6% for April, the lowest reading in ten months.

Private estimates place June inflation below 2%

Two Argentine consultancies calculated that June inflation stood between 1.8% and 1.9%, below the 2% monthly threshold.

Colombia inflation expectations exceed Banco de la República target

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Services inflation excluding rent reached 9.1% in May, driven by the 23% minimum wage hike. Market expectations for end-2026 rose to 6.5%.

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Official dollar reaches 1500 pesos at end of June

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The official dollar traded at 1500 pesos for sale on Tuesday June 30 at Banco Nación. The exchange rate accumulated a 5% rise during the month. Country risk closed below 430 basis points.

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