Illustration of central bank analysts reviewing inflation and exchange rate forecasts.
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Central Bank projects 2.3% inflation for May and dollar at 1,422 in June

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The Central Bank's Market Expectations Survey adjusted its forecasts for inflation and the exchange rate in 2026.

According to the latest Market Expectations Survey published on June 4, inflation for May is expected at 2.3% and core inflation at 2.2%. The official INDEC figure will be released on June 11. Projections show inflation continuing to decline: 2.1% in June, 2.0% in July, 1.8% in August and 1.9% in September. Accumulated inflation for 2026 is estimated at 30.5%, 1.5 percentage points below the previous survey. The official dollar is projected at 1,422 pesos for June and 1,658 pesos for December, with a year-on-year variation of 14.5%. GDP would grow 2.9% for the year, with unemployment falling to 7.4% in the fourth quarter.

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Initial reactions on X to the BCRA's REM survey show mostly neutral reporting and sharing of the 2.3% May inflation projection, with analysts noting stable expectations, slight downward revisions for later months, and some personal estimates or dollar forecasts for 2026.

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