Argentina's Central Bank released its latest Market Expectations Survey, drawing from 45 analysts' projections, estimating 2.4% inflation for January 2026 and a dollar rate of $1,475 in February.
The Central Bank of Argentina's Market Expectations Survey (REM), released on February 5, 2026, compiles projections from 45 consultancies and analysts on the country's economic outlook. For January 2026, the average estimates point to 2.4% inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), matching the core inflation rate. This official figure will be reported by INDEC on February 10, using the current methodology.
Monthly projections indicate a slight dip to 2.1% in February and a rise to 2.2% in March, followed by a downward trend: 1.9% in April, 1.7% in May, 1.6% in June, and 1.5% in July. Regarding the exchange rate, the average places the dollar at $1,475 in February 2026, and $1,750 by December, implying a 20.9% interannual variation.
Other indicators include an unemployment rate of 6.7% for the fourth quarter of 2025. On economic activity, GDP growth is estimated at 0.1% in Q4 2025 compared to the previous quarter, with forecasts of 0.9% and 1.0% for Q1 and Q2 2026, respectively. For all of 2026, real growth is expected at 3.2%. In foreign trade, the goods surplus is projected at US$11,175 million.
These expectations depict persistent inflation in the short term but signs of deceleration, amid moderate economic recovery.
