Luis Caputo estimates March inflation above 3%

Economy Minister Luis Caputo projected that March inflation will exceed 3%, driven by oil impacts and educational seasonality. The official INDEC data will be released on Tuesday, April 14, at 4 p.m. Caputo assured that disinflation and economic growth will begin from April.

Economy Minister Luis Caputo estimated in an interview at the Bolsa de Comercio de Rosario that the Consumer Price Index (IPC) for March "will surely be above 3%". He explained the rise stems from an oil-related "shock" affecting air fares, transport, fuels, and educational seasonality.

"From April onward comes a process of disinflation and growth; the best months are coming," Caputo added.

Consulting firms in the Central Bank's Market Expectations Survey (REM) project 3% for March, with declines to 1.8% in August and September. C-P estimates 3% to 3.3%, driven by regulated prices like fuels, electricity, and tobacco, up nearly 4.7%. BBVA Research forecasts 3.2% with a ±0.2 percentage point margin, while Equilibra calculates 3.3%, led by regulated items at 5.1% and non-seasonal foods at 4.2%.

Julián Neufeld from Fundación Libertad y Progreso reported a 2.9% IPC in their measurement, attributed to the Middle East conflict raising fuels by 6% in March's last week.

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The National Institute of Statistics and Censuses reported the consumer price index at 2.6% for April, the lowest reading in ten months.

The latest Relevamiento de Expectativas de Mercado (REM) from the Banco Central has raised inflation expectations for March and the rest of 2026. Consultancies forecast 3.0% for March, with an annual projection of 29.1%. They also updated estimates for the dollar, GDP, and unemployment.

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The Banco de la República released its Monthly Survey of Economists' Expectations, forecasting year-end inflation at 6.32% and interest rates at 12.25%. These projections mark an upward revision from March. Experts anticipate a gradual moderation in subsequent years.

The International Monetary Fund released its Article IV report on Spain on Friday. It warns of slower growth and inflation up to 4.8% in 2027 if the Iran war drags on.

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Japan's headline consumer price index rose 1.5% year-on-year in March, up from 1.3% in February and above the 1.4% market consensus. Core inflation, excluding fresh food, climbed to 1.8%, marking the first acceleration in five months. The data persists despite government subsidies aimed at curbing prices.

Fedesarrollo's March business opinion survey showed the commercial confidence index at 22.8%, up 0.2 percentage points from February, thanks to reduced inventories. In contrast, the industrial confidence index fell 3.2 points into negative territory amid lower production expectations.

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Economist Guillermo Hang warned that Argentina's government's main achievement, falling inflation, is showing signs of wear after an AmCham meeting. Hang said consumption recovery has not materialized and there are doubts about economic activity and family incomes. Monthly inflation stopped decelerating eight or nine months ago.

 

 

 

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