Luis Caputo estimates March inflation above 3%

Economy Minister Luis Caputo projected that March inflation will exceed 3%, driven by oil impacts and educational seasonality. The official INDEC data will be released on Tuesday, April 14, at 4 p.m. Caputo assured that disinflation and economic growth will begin from April.

Economy Minister Luis Caputo estimated in an interview at the Bolsa de Comercio de Rosario that the Consumer Price Index (IPC) for March "will surely be above 3%". He explained the rise stems from an oil-related "shock" affecting air fares, transport, fuels, and educational seasonality.

"From April onward comes a process of disinflation and growth; the best months are coming," Caputo added.

Consulting firms in the Central Bank's Market Expectations Survey (REM) project 3% for March, with declines to 1.8% in August and September. C-P estimates 3% to 3.3%, driven by regulated prices like fuels, electricity, and tobacco, up nearly 4.7%. BBVA Research forecasts 3.2% with a ±0.2 percentage point margin, while Equilibra calculates 3.3%, led by regulated items at 5.1% and non-seasonal foods at 4.2%.

Julián Neufeld from Fundación Libertad y Progreso reported a 2.9% IPC in their measurement, attributed to the Middle East conflict raising fuels by 6% in March's last week.

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Illustration of Mexico's inflation rising to 4.63% in March 2026, featuring a market scene with rising prices and a billboard display.
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Mexico's annual inflation rises to 4.63% in early March

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Mexico's National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) reported annual inflation at 4.63% for the first half of March 2026, exceeding analysts' estimates. The National Consumer Price Index (INPC) rose 0.62% from the previous half-month period.

The latest Relevamiento de Expectativas de Mercado (REM) from the Banco Central has raised inflation expectations for March and the rest of 2026. Consultancies forecast 3.0% for March, with an annual projection of 29.1%. They also updated estimates for the dollar, GDP, and unemployment.

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Argentina's Central Bank released its latest Market Expectations Survey, drawing from 45 analysts' projections, estimating 2.4% inflation for January 2026 and a dollar rate of $1,475 in February.

Colombia's January inflation hit 1.18% monthly, exceeding historical averages and highlighting the broad impact of the minimum wage increase on the IPC basket. The services component drove the uptick, with an annual variation of 6.33%. This breaks two months of moderation, pushing annual inflation to 5.35%.

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South Africa's consumer price index averaged 3.2% in 2025, down from 4.4% the previous year, staying within the Reserve Bank's target range. Inflation rose slightly to 3.6% in December, but economists remain optimistic due to factors like fuel price reductions and a stronger rand. The overall trend signals progress in managing price pressures.

INDEC director Marco Lavagna resigned on Monday due to disagreements with the government over implementing a new methodology for measuring January inflation. Economy Minister Luis Caputo confirmed the change will be postponed and appointed Pedro Lines as replacement. Unions express concerns over potential data manipulation.

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Inflation in the Philippines rose to 2.0% in January 2026, marking the second consecutive month of rising prices for goods, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority on February 5. This was up from 1.8% in December 2025. The increase stemmed from higher inflation in housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels.

 

 

 

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