Illustration of central bank analysts reviewing inflation and exchange rate forecasts.
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Central Bank projects 2.3% inflation for May and dollar at 1,422 in June

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The Central Bank's Market Expectations Survey adjusted its forecasts for inflation and the exchange rate in 2026.

According to the latest Market Expectations Survey published on June 4, inflation for May is expected at 2.3% and core inflation at 2.2%. The official INDEC figure will be released on June 11. Projections show inflation continuing to decline: 2.1% in June, 2.0% in July, 1.8% in August and 1.9% in September. Accumulated inflation for 2026 is estimated at 30.5%, 1.5 percentage points below the previous survey. The official dollar is projected at 1,422 pesos for June and 1,658 pesos for December, with a year-on-year variation of 14.5%. GDP would grow 2.9% for the year, with unemployment falling to 7.4% in the fourth quarter.

Ohun tí àwọn ènìyàn ń sọ

Initial reactions on X to the BCRA's REM survey show mostly neutral reporting and sharing of the 2.3% May inflation projection, with analysts noting stable expectations, slight downward revisions for later months, and some personal estimates or dollar forecasts for 2026.

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Illustration of Mexico's inflation rising to 4.63% in March 2026, featuring a market scene with rising prices and a billboard display.
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Mexico's annual inflation rises to 4.63% in early March

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Mexico's National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) reported annual inflation at 4.63% for the first half of March 2026, exceeding analysts' estimates. The National Consumer Price Index (INPC) rose 0.62% from the previous half-month period.

Consultancies raise inflation projections in BCRA's REM survey

The latest Relevamiento de Expectativas de Mercado (REM) from the Banco Central has raised inflation expectations for March and the rest of 2026. Consultancies forecast 3.0% for March, with an annual projection of 29.1%. They also updated estimates for the dollar, GDP, and unemployment.

Analysts project year-end inflation at 6.32% and rates at 12.25%

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The Banco de la República released its Monthly Survey of Economists' Expectations, forecasting year-end inflation at 6.32% and interest rates at 12.25%. These projections mark an upward revision from March. Experts anticipate a gradual moderation in subsequent years.

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The local currency ended the June 5 session at 3,588.12 pesos, up 22.8 pesos from the TRM of 3,565.32 pesos.

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Analysts forecast gradual dollar rise from April

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