China's government is likely to set a 2026 economic growth target in a range of 4.5% to 5%, according to three briefed sources. If confirmed, this would signal tolerance for some deceleration amid challenges, prioritizing economic rebalancing and stability.
China's government is poised to announce this year's economic growth target in March, setting it as a range between 4.5% and 5%, according to three sources briefed on the discussions. This approach would mark a shift toward greater policy flexibility, emphasizing economic rebalancing and stability—priorities amplified in the inaugural year of a new five-year plan and ahead of the Communist Party's national congress slated for late 2027.
The move aligns with the "right concept of political performance," which dismisses economic growth as the sole benchmark for evaluating local officials. For the past three years, China has consistently targeted and achieved around 5% annual GDP growth: 5.2% in 2023, and 5% in each of the preceding two years.
Introducing a range suggests tolerance for modest slowdowns amid headwinds like deflation, subdued consumer spending, and a faltering domestic property market. While institutions such as the International Monetary Fund monitor China's trajectory, this adjustment aims to foster adaptability, particularly against external pressures including US tariff policies, without fixating on a precise figure.
