Global airlines slash 2026 profit forecast on fuel costs

The global airline industry has cut its 2026 profit outlook sharply because of higher fuel prices linked to conflict in the Middle East. Carriers now expect to earn $23 billion for the year, down from an earlier projection of $41 billion. Rising jet fuel costs and required flight reroutes are the main factors behind the revision.

Airlines worldwide face increased expenses as the Iran War pushes up fuel prices and disrupts routes across the region. The adjusted forecast reflects these immediate pressures on operations and finances. Industry analysts attribute the change directly to the Middle East conflict and its effects on supply chains and aviation logistics. No other causes were cited in the report. The reduction marks a significant shift from previous expectations and highlights the vulnerability of airline profits to geopolitical events.

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Illustration depicting chaos at a French airport with canceled flights, rising airfares, and stranded tourists due to Middle East war fuel costs.
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2026 Middle East War: Surging Fuel Costs Hit French Tourism and Airfares

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Amid ongoing disruptions from the Middle East war that began February 28, 2026—including over 37,000 flight cancellations and airline recoveries—French travel bookings have plummeted and airfares risen due to oil price surges. Agencies urge suspending trips to nine Persian Gulf nations until March 31, while Air France and KLM impose 50-euro long-haul surcharges.

As the 2026 Middle East War disrupts supplies, the Airlines Association of Southern Africa warns of potential jet fuel shortages beyond May. Regional prices have surged from R8.50 per liter in February to over R30 by mid-April, leading to temporary fuel surcharges on new bookings.

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Industry sources say Indian airline operators are now paying additional insurance charges for every aircraft flying into the Middle East. This is significantly increasing the cost of operations on these routes. Fares may rise as a result.

The European Union is preparing non-binding guidance urging member states to reduce reliance on Middle Eastern jet fuel and consider increasing imports from the United States, a source familiar with the plans told Reuters, as the Iran war continues to disrupt energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

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Airline SAS is canceling a couple of hundred flights in March and at least 1,000 in April due to sharply increased fuel prices. The company cites a doubling of fuel costs in ten days amid the Middle East war. Norwegian pilot unions question the explanation, pointing to staffing issues.

India's largest airline IndiGo has introduced new fuel surcharges of up to ₹950 per sector on domestic routes and ₹10,000 on long-haul international flights following an 8.56% rise in jet fuel prices. The government coordinated a partial and staggered increase with oil companies. The changes apply to all new bookings from April 2.

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