Economist Youssef Souidi and editor Thomas Vonderscher release «Nouvelle cartographie électorale de la France», a detailed analysis of votes per polling station crossed with INSEE social data. Ahead of the 2027 presidential election, the book nuances geographical divides and depicts an evolving electorate. It highlights the end of the majority pattern and an established tripartition, with a fragile Macronist base.
Electoral cartography, a discipline dating back at least to sociologist André Siegfried (1875-1959) and his 1913 book «Tableau politique de la France de l’Ouest sous la IIIᵉ République», continues to engage voters, strategists, and commentators. Ahead of the 2027 presidential election, Youssef Souidi and Thomas Vonderscher achieve unprecedented precision in their book «Nouvelle cartographie électorale de la France» (Textuel, 304 pages, 24 euros).
Inspired by Julia Cagé and Thomas Piketty’s «Une histoire du conflit politique» (Seuil, 2023), which examines the communal level from 1789 to 2022, the authors cross results from around 70,000 French polling stations with INSEE social data. This approach yields a granular portrait of the electorate, dispelling misunderstandings that fuel political narratives.
The book nuances discussions of deep geographical fractures and depicts a political landscape marked by the end of the majority pattern. A tripartition appears firmly established, though the Macronist electoral base seems fragile. The authors identify four «swing circos», pivotal constituencies.
They focus on voters’ living conditions rather than their residence. For the Rassemblement national (RN) electorate, the far right appeals to a significant portion of the middle class. The RN vote is less rooted in specific territories like rural areas or suburbs of medium-sized cities, but in conditions characterized by distance from daily services. This choice often occurs in polling stations where residents lack daily experience of cohabitation with immigrant populations.