An Elabe poll for BFMTV and La Tribune Dimanche shows the Rassemblement national (RN) at 35% in a hypothetical presidential election, up four points from April. Jordan Bardella leads ahead of Édouard Philippe and Jean-Luc Mélenchon. The findings highlight France's current political instability.
The poll, conducted on October 30 and 31 among 1,501 people representative of mainland France's population aged 18 and over (including 1,396 registered voters), uses the quota method. The margin of error is plus or minus 3%.
In the main scenario pitting Jordan Bardella (RN) against Édouard Philippe (presidential camp), Jean-Luc Mélenchon (LFI), Raphaël Glucksmann (PS), and Bruno Retailleau (LR), Bardella garners 35% of voting intentions (+4 points from April), Philippe 15.5% (-5), Mélenchon 12.5% (+3), Glucksmann 11% (+0.5), and Retailleau 8% (-0.5). Philippe Poutou (NPA) is no longer tested in this setup.
The survey tests five configurations, varying candidates. For the RN, Bardella scores between 35 and 37.5%, while Marine Le Pen gets 34%. Among macronists, Philippe leads with 15.5 to 19.5% (the latter against Laurent Wauquiez for LR), ahead of Gabriel Attal (12.5%) and Gérald Darmanin (7%).
On the left, Mélenchon is gaining momentum with 12 to 13%, challenging Glucksmann for third (11 to 13%). Glucksmann outperforms Olivier Faure (5.5%) and François Hollande (6.5%). For Les Républicains (LR), Retailleau (8 to 8.5%) does better than Xavier Bertrand (5.5%) and Laurent Wauquiez (3%).
Trailing the main candidates, Éric Zemmour (Reconquête) and Marine Tondelier (Les Écologistes) are at 4.5% each, with Dominique de Villepin and Fabien Roussel (PCF) at 3% apiece. The poll underscores the RN's advances amid France's political instability.