The South African Weather Service forecasts above-normal rainfall for the southeastern and eastern coastal areas during autumn and early winter, while the southwestern regions face below-normal precipitation.
As autumn approaches, the South African Weather Service has issued its Seasonal Climate Watch report, projecting conditions through the end of July. In the southern and eastern coastal regions, significant rainfall is expected to exceed normal levels. This development should boost dam levels and groundwater recharge, easing water shortages in areas like the Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal.
Conversely, the southwestern parts of the country, including Cape Town, anticipate below-normal rainfall. Combined with above-normal minimum and maximum temperatures across most of South Africa, this could heighten water stress and evaporation rates, straining already scarce resources. Such conditions may adversely affect the winter wheat harvest, a sector already under pressure.
The report also highlights shifts in broader climate patterns. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation remains in a weak La Niña phase but is projected to transition to neutral and possibly develop into El Niño by the end of winter. This could influence summer rainfall next season. The previous El Niño event in 2023/24 triggered widespread droughts across southern Africa, damaging crops like maize. Recent La Niña rains have provided some relief, supporting a maize production estimate of 16.13 million tonnes for 2025-26, a 3% decline from the prior year but still above the long-term average.
Overall, temperatures are set to run higher than usual nationwide during this period.