The Mexican government is weighing whether to reduce or suspend crude oil shipments to Cuba amid pressures from the United States under President Donald Trump. High-level sources cited by Reuters and Politico point to a potential total blockade on Cuba's oil imports, invoking the Helms-Burton Act. Mexico has become Cuba's main fuel supplier following the halt in Venezuelan deliveries.
The prospect of Mexico halting its oil shipments to Cuba has shifted from diplomatic rumor to an internal debate within Claudia Sheinbaum's government. A Reuters investigation reports that three high-level sources confirmed the Mexican executive is assessing whether to maintain, reduce, or suspend crude supplies, fearing direct retaliation from Washington. Politico cites three sources familiar with the plan, stating the White House is considering invoking the Helms-Burton Act to impose a total blockade on Cuba's oil imports. One source remarked: “energy is the key to killing the regime, and this will happen in 2026, with a 100% probability”.
The cutoff of Venezuelan shipments, after the forced immobilization of oil tankers in December and the capture of Nicolás Maduro, has positioned Mexico as Cuba's primary fuel lifeline amid prolonged blackouts and a deepening energy crisis. From January to September last year, Pemex exported about 17,200 barrels per day of crude and 2,000 of refined products to the island, valued at roughly $400 million. Sheinbaum has publicly defended the shipments as “humanitarian aid” under long-term contracts, noting that “it’s little oil for Mexico, but vital for Cuba” and “does not have to disappear”.
Yet concern mounts in the Mexican cabinet over the political cost of antagonizing Trump, particularly during USMCA trade renegotiations and anti-cartel initiatives. Trump was direct in a January 11 Truth Social post: “no more oil or money for Cuba”. In a recent phone call, Trump directly questioned Sheinbaum about the shipments and the presence of thousands of Cuban doctors in Mexico. Sheinbaum emphasized the humanitarian nature of the oil and the legality of the health agreement.
Flight-tracking data reveals at least a dozen U.S. Navy drone missions, including the Northrop Grumman MQ-4C Triton, over the Bay of Campeche, mirroring routes of Mexican tankers to Cuba. Reuters sources view this as an unmistakable signal. Within Mexico's government, the debate persists: some see continuing supplies as a moral duty to prevent a humanitarian disaster and mass migration to Mexico, while others warn the price of defying Trump could prove too steep amid peak bilateral tensions.
In Havana's streets, shortages are palpable: a private transport operator noted only one station on Vía Blanca had fuel, and the informal market has vanished. Bakeries with generators serve as key food outlets during blackouts.
