The 2026 NFL playoffs reach the divisional round with four high-stakes games on Saturday, Jan. 17, and Sunday, Jan. 18. Top power-ranked seeds Denver Broncos (14-3) and Seattle Seahawks (14-3) host Buffalo Bills (12-5) and San Francisco 49ers (12-5), respectively, while New England Patriots (14-3) face Houston Texans (11-6) and Chicago Bears (11-6) welcome Los Angeles Rams (10-7). Updated lines show tight contests amid injuries and potent offenses, with models projecting close outcomes and overs.
The divisional round narrows the field to eight teams vying for conference titles after a wild-card weekend of upsets, with underdogs covering four of six spreads. Road teams from round one face rested hosts or rivals, highlighted by dynamic QBs (Allen, Darnold, Maye, Stafford, Williams) testing elite defenses. SportsLine's model, simulating 10,000 times, favors close games and overs in several, en route to Super Bowl LX on Feb. 8 at Levi's Stadium.
Saturday, Jan. 17
4:30 p.m. ET on CBS: Buffalo Bills at No. 1 seed Denver Broncos at Empower Field. Broncos (14-3, NFL-leading 68 sacks) are 1.5-point favorites (O/U 45.5). Buffalo (12-5) edged Jacksonville 27-24, with Josh Allen's 273 yards and two rush TDs, but Denver's rest and home dominance (9-1 in last 10) loom despite Buffalo's 31-7 wild-card rout last year. Bo Nix's 87.8 passer rating trails others; models project Broncos 24-23.
8 p.m. ET on Fox: NFC West rivals San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field. Seahawks (14-3, No. 1 scoring defense at 17.2 PPG, seven-game streak) are 7-point favorites (O/U 44.5; models eye 50+ points). Sam Darnold (4,048 yards, 25 TDs) leads Seattle, which blanked SF 13-3 in Week 18, but he's questionable with oblique. 49ers (12-5) upset Philly 23-19 despite George Kittle's torn Achilles; models project Seahawks 29-21.
Sunday, Jan. 18
3 p.m. ET on ESPN/ABC: Houston Texans at New England Patriots. Pats (14-3) are 3-point favorites (O/U 40.5) behind MVP-candidate Drake Maye's top QBR; they held Chargers to three points. Texans (11-6, elite 17.4 PPG defense) crushed Pittsburgh 30-6 (two defensive scores) but C.J. Stroud fumbled five times, Nico Collins is out (concussion), and short rest/cold looms.
6:30 p.m. ET on NBC: Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears. Rams (10-7) are 4.5-point road favorites (O/U 48.5) powered by Matthew Stafford's NFL-leading passing yards/TDs after 34-31 wild-card win. Bears (11-6) rallied 31-27 over Green Bay (Caleb Williams: 361 yards, 2 TDs; first home playoff win since 2010), but Soldier Field cold could hinder LA's warm-weather offense in projected shootout.
