In Valle del Cauca, the distribution of 13 House seats hinges largely on the Pacto Histórico's performance in the 2026 legislative elections. If it holds its five seats from 2022, growth for other parties will be challenging. Only the Centro Democrático and Partido Liberal could aim for two seats each.
Following the inscription of congressional candidate lists, calculations in Valle del Cauca predict the distribution of the department's 13 House seats. The Pacto Histórico stands as the key factor, potentially reshaping outcomes for all others.
In 2022, the Pacto secured five seats, and current forecasts suggest it could repeat that, restricting others' growth. With five for the Pacto and three for the Partido de la U, only five seats would remain contested. Expansion for parties with current representation or entry for newcomers would rely on any Pacto decline.
The Centro Democrático, holding one seat, bolstered its list and may gain from anti-Petrism rhetoric to attract opposition votes. It garnered about 125,000 votes in 2022 but requires 160,000 to 170,000 for two. Similarly, the Partido Liberal, with two seats, contends with losses of three key candidates; it added prominent figures and allied with Colombia Renaciente to fill the gap.
Both could secure two seats or settle for one, based on votes. If they do, just one would be left, likely for Cambio Radical, despite its coalition with Colombia Justa Libres and Liga de Gobernantes Anticorrupción, which is unlikely to reach two. Should the Pacto drop to four or one major party to one, opportunities would arise for the Ahora Colombia coalition, comprising Mira, Nuevo Liberalismo, and Dignidad y Compromiso.
Three months remain until the elections, and the landscape may shift; it will be reassessed in two.