A new American Heart Association scientific statement published Feb. 25, 2026 in Circulation projects that cardiovascular risk factors such as high blood pressure, obesity and diabetes will become more common among U.S. women by 2050, with particularly steep increases forecast for some younger women and for several racial and ethnic groups.
The American Heart Association (AHA) on Feb. 25 published a scientific statement in Circulation projecting that the burden of cardiovascular conditions in U.S. women will grow over the next 25 years as major risk factors become more prevalent.
According to the AHA statement and its accompanying materials, the projections indicate that by 2050 nearly 60% of U.S. women could have high blood pressure, up from about half in 2020. The statement also projects that more than 25% of women will have diabetes (up from about 15%) and that more than 60% will have obesity (up from about 44%).
The AHA materials say the statement anticipates increases across several major cardiovascular conditions in women, including coronary heart disease, heart failure, atrial fibrillation and stroke, alongside the rise in those risk factors.
The writing group chair, Dr. Karen E. Joynt Maddox of Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis, said the stakes are high for families. “One in every three women will die from cardiovascular disease — maybe it’s your grandmother, or your mother or your daughter,” she said in the AHA release. She added that more than 62 million women in the U.S. are living with some type of cardiovascular disease and that the annual cost is at least $200 billion.
The projections also highlight concern for younger adults. By 2025, the AHA materials project nearly one-third of women ages 22 to 44 will have some form of cardiovascular disease, compared with fewer than one in four “today.” In that age group, diabetes is projected to rise to nearly 16% (from about 6%), high blood pressure to more than one-third, and obesity to more than one in six.
The AHA statement materials project that increases will be larger in some racial and ethnic groups. For example, high blood pressure is projected to rise most among Hispanic women (by more than 15%), and obesity is projected to climb most among Asian women (by nearly 26%). Black women are projected to continue to have the highest rates of several key risk factors, with more than 70% projected to have high blood pressure, more than 71% obesity and nearly 28% diabetes.
Among girls ages 2 to 19, the AHA materials project that nearly 32% could have obesity by 2050—an increase of more than 12%—and link that forecast to projections that more than 60% will have insufficient physical activity and more than half will have poor diets. Obesity rates are projected to be higher among girls of color, including an estimate of 40% among Black girls.
The statement also describes areas where trends are expected to improve, including declining high cholesterol and improvements in behaviors such as diet, physical activity and smoking. The AHA points to its Life’s Essential 8 framework—covering four health behaviors and four health factors—and notes that research suggests as much as 80% of heart disease and stroke could be prevented.
“Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death for women and remains their #1 health risk overall,” said Dr. Stacey E. Rosen, the AHA’s volunteer president, in the release. Rosen and Joynt Maddox said the projections underscore the need to strengthen prevention—particularly for younger women and women of color—and to address social and environmental factors that can shape risk, such as poverty and access to healthy food and health care.
